能耗落地仍需时间，硅片再度涨价传导压力

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Industrial silicon: Oscillation [5] - Polysilicon: Oscillation [5] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The resumption rhythm of large factories in Xinjiang still affects the fundamental changes of industrial silicon. The discussion on the energy consumption issue of industrial silicon in the Baotou meeting on Friday has no clear conclusion, and it is expected to be difficult to implement in a short time. The short - term price of industrial silicon may run between 8,200 - 9,200 yuan/ton. For polysilicon, the futures price is expected to fluctuate widely between 50,000 - 60,000 yuan/ton in the short term [4]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industrial Silicon/Polysilicon Industry Chain Prices - Industrial silicon: The Si2511 contract closed at 8,745 yuan/ton, down 75 yuan/ton from last week. The spot price of East China oxygen - blown 553 increased by 100 yuan/ton to 9,200 yuan/ton, and the price of Xinjiang 99 silicon increased by 100 yuan/ton to 8,600 yuan/ton. - Polysilicon: The PS2511 contract closed at 53,610 yuan/ton, down 3,125 yuan/ton from last week [10][11]. 3.2 Energy Consumption Implementation Takes Time, and Silicon Wafer Prices Rise Again to Transfer Pressure Industrial Silicon - This week, 7 new furnaces were opened in Xinjiang, and the situation in other regions remained unchanged. Southern production remained stable and may enter the dry season at the end of October with some silicon factories reducing production. The social inventory of industrial silicon increased by 0.2 million tons, and the sample factory inventory increased by 0.32 million tons. If the operation of large factories in Xinjiang remains unchanged, industrial silicon may accumulate about 30,000 tons of inventory from September to October and may reduce inventory by about 100,000 tons during the dry season from November to December. However, if large factories in Xinjiang resume full production, it may be difficult to reduce inventory during the dry season [2][12]. Organic Silicon - The price of organic silicon remained stable this week. Some devices were shut down for maintenance, and the weekly production was 48,900 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.62%. The inventory was 47,300 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.27%. It is expected that the price of organic silicon will fluctuate at a low level [12]. Polysilicon - The futures price of polysilicon fluctuated and declined this week. The quoted price of dense material from first - tier manufacturers was 55 yuan/kg, and that from second - and third - tier manufacturers was 52 yuan/kg. The new order price of granular material increased to 50 yuan/kg. The production limit in September has not been fully implemented, and the planned production is still about 128,000 tons. As of September 11, the factory inventory of polysilicon enterprises was 219,000 tons, mainly concentrated in two first - tier enterprises. The inventory of downstream silicon wafer factories reached 2 - 2.5 months. Affected by sales quotas, the supply - demand situation of polysilicon may be tighter. Considering the high production pressure of downstream sectors, the price of silicon material may remain flat or rise slightly. The new energy consumption standard is still in the drafting stage and will take time to implement [3][14]. Silicon Wafer - This week, the price of silicon wafers stabilized at a new level. The mainstream transaction prices of M10/G12R/G12 silicon wafers were 1.30/1.40/1.65 yuan/piece. The production plan in September was 57.5GW, a month - on - month increase of 1.5GW. As of September 11, the inventory of silicon wafer factories was 16.55GW, a month - on - month decrease of 0.3GW. The price of silicon wafers may rise further [15]. Battery Cell - The price of battery cells rose this week. The mainstream transaction prices of M10/G12 battery cells rose to 0.31/0.3 yuan/watt, while that of G12R remained at 0.285 yuan/watt. Overseas demand drove up the price of M10 battery cells, and G12 benefited from the peak season of domestic traditional centralized demand. The production plan in September was 60GW, a month - on - month increase of 1.8GW. It is expected that the price of battery cells will remain stable in the short term [16]. Component - The price of components remained stable this week. The production plan in September was 50GW, a month - on - month increase of 1GW. Some component enterprises have plans to reduce production due to cost pressure. It is expected that the price of components will fluctuate in the short term [17][18]. 3.3 Investment Advice - Industrial silicon: The short - term price of industrial silicon may run between 8,200 - 9,200 yuan/ton. Pay attention to interval operation opportunities [4][19]. - Polysilicon: In the short term, the futures price is expected to fluctuate between 50,000 - 60,000 yuan/ton. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of selling out - of - the - money call options after the rebound of the 11 - contract, and the arbitrage can pay attention to the PS2511 - PS2512 reverse arbitrage opportunity [4][19]. 3.4 Hot News Sorting - India reduced the goods and services tax (GST) on renewable energy components from 12% to 5%, which is expected to reduce the capital cost of solar and wind energy projects by about 5% [20]. - On September 14, leading enterprises raised the price of silicon wafers [20]. - On September 12, the National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration issued a notice to improve the price mechanism to promote the nearby consumption of new energy power generation [20]. 3.5 Industry Chain High - Frequency Data Tracking - A series of charts show the price, production, inventory, and profit data of industrial silicon, organic silicon, polysilicon, silicon wafers, battery cells, and components [9].