盘面预计延续偏强，关注旺季需求兑现情况

Report Industry Investment Rating - The rating for the casting aluminum alloy is "Oscillation" [1] Core Viewpoints of the Report - The price of remelted aluminum alloy ingots trended strongly last week. AD2511 closed at 20,645 yuan/ton, a 1.8% increase from the previous week, and Baotai Group's ADC12 sales price rose 300 yuan/ton to 20,600 yuan/ton. With tight scrap aluminum supply and cost support, the sales price of alloy ingots is likely to rise. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of going long on AD2511 at low prices. For arbitrage, the previous long AD2511 and short AL2511 arbitrage orders can be held, but a reasonable stop - profit space should be set if the automobile market weakens [1][3] Summary According to the Directory 1. Scrap Aluminum Arrival Continues to Decline for Weeks, Continuously Monitor Policies and Peak - Season Demand - Last week (09/08 - 09/12), the price of remelted aluminum alloy ingots trended strongly. AD2511 closed at 20,645 yuan/ton, a 1.8% increase, and Baotai Group's ADC12 sales price rose 300 yuan/ton to 20,600 yuan/ton. The cost side provides strong support, and the profit has significantly narrowed [12] - This week, scrap aluminum prices generally trended strongly, rising 100 - 300 yuan. The prices of some raw materials for cast aluminum alloys increased significantly. With the macro - micro resonance of primary aluminum prices, scrap aluminum will follow the upward trend. Under the peak - season expectation, the demand for raw materials by enterprises is increasing, and the upward trend of scrap aluminum is expected to continue [15] 2. Recent Industry News Review - In August, the PMI of the aluminum processing industry was 53.3%, showing an improvement from the off - season to the peak season. The primary alloy expanded steadily, while the recycled alloy was still below the boom - bust line [18] - In July 2025, China's scrap aluminum imports were 160,500 tons, a 3.15% month - on - month increase and an 18.68% year - on - year increase. Thailand and Japan were the main suppliers [18] - Four ministries and commissions including the National Development and Reform Commission issued a notice to regulate investment promotion behaviors, requiring the rectification of illegal fiscal rebates and subsidies [18] - The US expanded the scope of a 50% tariff on steel and aluminum imports, including hundreds of derivative products [19] 3. Key High - Frequency Data Monitoring of the Industrial Chain 3.1 Scrap Aluminum: Arrival Continues to Decline, Price Remains High - This week, scrap aluminum prices generally trended strongly, with some raw materials for cast aluminum alloys rising significantly. The high price dampened the purchasing sentiment of some aluminum enterprises. With the macro - micro resonance of primary aluminum prices, scrap aluminum will follow the upward trend, but the increase is weaker than that of primary aluminum [15] 3.2 ADC12: Price is Strong, Social Inventory is High - This week, the price of cast aluminum alloy futures trended strongly, with a 1.8% increase. The spot price of Baotai also rose significantly. It is expected to remain strong in the short term. However, the social inventory of ADC12 continued to rise, and most enterprises had insufficient short - term orders, weakening their pricing power [16] 3.3 Downstream: Weekly Sales of Various Automobile Brands are Weakening, Be Alert to the Risk of Unfulfilled Peak - Season Demand - The market still expects an improvement in demand, and enterprise orders are gradually recovering. However, the weekly sales data of various automobile brands show signs of weakening, and the automobile inventory warning index has increased month - on - month. There is a risk that the peak - season demand may not be fulfilled [2]