债欲静而风未止

Group 1 - The current market status indicates increasing pressure in the bond market, primarily due to redemption pressures from fixed income products rather than the stock-bond relationship [7][12][15] - The risk in the bond market may have exceeded the influences of fundamentals, liquidity, and the stock-bond relationship, with the stock market showing signs of structural volatility without alleviating bond market pressure [22][26][30] - Institutional buying power for bonds is weak, and trading desks are in a phase of reducing positions under pressure, indicating a lack of enthusiasm for bond purchases compared to previous years [15][19][20] Group 2 - Observing signals for market sentiment turning points is crucial, including monitoring deposit certificate rates, which can indicate liquidity conditions and the attractiveness of bond assets [32][33] - The bond market is still returning to reasonable valuation levels, with current adjustments potentially setting the stage for a bullish trend by the end of 2024 [37][41][44] - The bond market may be in a phase of accelerated risk release, with limited opportunities for bullish positions until clearer signals of easing emerge [37][39][45]