煤炭开采行业跟踪周报：煤炭淡季开启，港口煤价震荡运行-20250914

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the coal mining industry [1] Core Viewpoints - The coal mining industry is entering the off-season, with port coal prices experiencing fluctuations. As of September 12, the spot price of thermal coal at ports increased by 1 CNY/ton to 680 CNY/ton. Supply from the four ports in the Bohai Rim averaged 1.6136 million tons per day, a decrease of 207,900 tons week-on-week, representing an 11.41% decline. Demand also saw a reduction, with daily outflows dropping by 25.59% to 1.5834 million tons. The inventory at the four ports decreased slightly to 22.687 million tons, down 0.10% from the previous week. The report suggests that as the industry enters the off-season, with a notable drop in temperatures and residential electricity demand, there may be short-term pressure on inventory depletion, leading to a forecast of fluctuating coal prices in the near term [1][2][5] Summary by Sections 1. Weekly Market Review - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3,870.60 points, up 1.14% week-on-week. The coal sector index closed at 2,642.87 points, down 0.14% with a trading volume of 38.209 billion CNY, a decrease of 13.07% [10] 2. Price Movements - The price of thermal coal at production sites showed mixed trends. As of September 12, the price for 5500 kcal thermal coal in Datong increased by 6 CNY/ton to 560 CNY/ton, while the price for 4000 kcal thermal coal in Inner Mongolia decreased by 10 CNY/ton to 370 CNY/ton. The port price for 5500 kcal thermal coal at Qinhuangdao rose by 1 CNY/ton to 680 CNY/ton [15][17] 3. Inventory and Shipping - The average daily coal inflow at the four Bohai Rim ports was 1.6136 million tons, down 11.41% week-on-week. The average daily outflow was 1.5834 million tons, down 13.91%. The number of anchored vessels decreased to 71, a drop of 8.82% [25][28] 4. Recommendations - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring insurance capital inflows and suggests focusing on resource stocks. It recommends specific thermal coal stocks, including Haohua Energy and Guanghui Energy, which are considered undervalued [2][33]