牛市的下一程：大类资产联动的信号

Market Insights - The recent fluctuations in major asset classes are influenced by weaker-than-expected US data, leading to increased expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts, which have positively impacted precious metals while oil prices remain volatile due to supply expectations and inventory levels [1][10] - Domestic commodities have been adjusting due to the observation period of anti-involution policies, resulting in a significant drop in the correlation between domestic commodities and bond yields and stock indices, although recent stabilization has been noted [1][10] - The stock-bond market continues to exhibit a seesaw effect, with A-share indices reaching new highs while bond yields also rise, indicating a complex interplay influenced by credit cycles and policy implementation [1][10] Domestic Economic Indicators - In August, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) slightly decreased year-on-year, while the Producer Price Index (PPI) increased, narrowing the PPI-CPI gap [2][31] - Exports and imports in August both fell short of expectations, with exports growing by 4.4% year-on-year and imports by 1.3%, indicating a mixed performance in trade [2][40] - Social financing showed a slight decline, with new medium to long-term loans for enterprises experiencing a significant reduction in year-on-year decline [2][52] International Economic Indicators - The US inflation data for August met market expectations, with the CPI increasing by 2.9% year-on-year and core CPI remaining stable at 3.1% [3][70] - The geopolitical landscape, including the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict and tensions in the Middle East, continues to impact global economic conditions and market sentiment [3][65][67] Industry Allocation Recommendations - Investment strategies should focus on three main directions: breakthroughs in technology AI, economic recovery with a focus on strong sectors, and the continued rise of undervalued assets [4] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring the progress of AI applications and consumption trends, particularly in the context of the Hang Seng Internet sector [4]