能源化工甲醇周度报告-20250914

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The short - term main contract of methanol shows a range - bound pattern with both upside pressure and downside support. The upside pressure comes from the supply side of the fundamentals, such as high imports and high daily production leading to increased inventory. The downside support is from the expected improvement of fundamentals and the tone of China's anti - involution policy. Overall, methanol prices are expected to be range - bound and fluctuate with macro - sentiment next week [2][4]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 This Week's Methanol Summary Supply - China's methanol production decreased this week (20250905 - 0911), with the output from capacity involved in maintenance and production cuts exceeding that from restored capacity. The production was 1,919,265 tons, a decrease of 43,550 tons from last week, and the plant capacity utilization rate was 84.58%, a 2.37% drop. However, the planned maintenance and production - cut devices are expected to decrease and the restored devices to increase, so the overall market supply may rise [4]. - For olefins, Shenhua Xinjiang is expected to restart while Qinghai Salt Lake's olefin plant continues to be shut down, and the industry's operating rate is expected to rise after offsetting. For traditional downstream products, dimethyl ether's overall capacity utilization rate is expected to continue to increase; the overall capacity utilization rate of glacial acetic acid is expected to rise; the capacity utilization rate of formaldehyde is expected to decline; and there is a possibility of production reduction in chlorides [4]. Demand - The capacity utilization rate of different downstream products of methanol has different trends. Dimethyl ether and glacial acetic acid are expected to see an increase in capacity utilization, while formaldehyde is expected to decline, and chlorides may reduce production [4]. Inventory - As of September 10, 2025, 11:30, the inventory of China's methanol sample production enterprises was 342,600 tons, a decrease of 4,500 tons from the previous period, a 1.31% drop; the sample enterprises' orders to be delivered were 250,700 tons, an increase of 9,400 tons, a 3.91% rise. The port sample inventory was 1,550,300 tons, an increase of 122,600 tons, an 8.59% increase, with continued significant inventory accumulation [4]. View - The short - term main contract is range - bound. The upside is limited by supply - side fundamentals, and the downside is supported by expected fundamental improvement and the anti - involution policy. It is expected that methanol prices will operate within a range and fluctuate with macro - sentiment next week [4]. Strategy - Unilateral: The near - end is weak unilaterally, while the far - end has expected support. The upper pressure on the 01 contract is 2,430 - 2,440 yuan/ton, and the lower support is 2,350 - 2,360 yuan/ton. - Inter - period: The 10 - 01/11 - 01 month spreads show a reverse arbitrage pattern, and the 1 - 5 month spread enters a short - term oscillation pattern. It is recommended to conduct reverse arbitrage at high levels. - Inter - variety: The spread between MA and PP enters an oscillation pattern [4]. 3.2 Price and Spread - The report presents multiple charts showing the trends of basis, month spreads, warehouse receipts, domestic and international spot prices, and port - inland price differences of methanol from 2020 to 2025 [7][8][9][10][11][12][13][14][15][16][17][18][19][20][21][22]. 3.3 Supply New Capacity Summary - From 2024 to 2025, there have been multiple new methanol plants in China and overseas. In 2024, the total capacity expansion in China was 4 million tons, and in 2025, it is expected to be 8.4 million tons. Internationally, the total capacity expansion in 2024 was 3.55 million tons, and in 2025, it is expected to be 3.3 million tons [24]. Maintenance Summary - A list of domestic methanol plant shutdowns and production cuts is provided, including information on provinces, enterprises, capacities, maintenance start and end dates, durations, actual and theoretical daily and total losses. The total affected capacity is 8.54 million tons [26]. Production and Operating Rate - Charts show the trends of methanol production and capacity utilization rates in China and different regions, as well as production by different processes from 2018 to 2025 [27][29][30][31][32][33]. Import - Related - Charts display the trends of China's monthly methanol import volume, import cost, weekly arrival volume, and import profit from 2020 to 2025 [36][37][38][39]. Cost and Profit - The report shows the trends of production costs and profits of methanol produced by different processes in different regions from 2020 to 2025 [41][42][43][45][46][47][48]. 3.4 Demand Downstream Operating Rate - Charts present the trends of capacity utilization rates of methanol downstream products such as methanol - to - olefins, dimethyl ether, formaldehyde, glacial acetic acid, MTBE, etc. from 2018 to 2025 [51][52][53][54][55]. Downstream Profit - The report shows the trends of production profits of methanol downstream products in different regions from 2020 to 2025 [57][58][59][60][61][62][63][64]. MTO and Traditional Downstream Procurement and Inventory - Charts display the procurement volumes of MTO production enterprises in different regions and the procurement volumes and raw material inventories of traditional downstream manufacturers in different regions from 2020 to 2025 [65][66][67][68][69][70][71][72][73][74][75][76][77][78][79]. 3.5 Inventory Factory Inventory - Charts show the trends of methanol factory inventories in China and different regions from 2018 to 2025 [81][82][83][84]. Port Inventory - Charts present the trends of methanol port inventories in China and different regions from 2018 to 2025 [86][87][88][89].