周观：公募销售费用新规下的债市（2025年第36期）

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the domestic bond market, due to the "stock - bond seesaw" and concerns about the increased redemption fees for bond funds in the new regulations, the 10 - year Treasury bond yield has risen. The passive index non - ETF bond funds and short - term pure bond funds are expected to be most affected, and investors are advised to shorten the duration. The yield curve is expected to steepen [1][16]. - In the overseas market, gold has strong allocation value currently. The U.S. PPI and CPI data in August 2025, along with the "dovish" speech of Powell, indicate that the Fed is likely to restart interest rate cuts in the September meeting, and the long - term U.S. bonds may show higher volatility [1][17][27]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 One - Week Views - Impact of new regulations on bond funds: The new regulations on public offering fund sales fees have increased the short - term redemption costs of bond funds. Passive index non - ETF bond funds and short - term pure bond funds are most affected. The former can be replaced by government financial bond ETFs, and the latter can turn to inter - bank certificate of deposit index funds [16]. - Analysis of U.S. economic data and bond market: The U.S. PPI and core PPI in August were significantly lower than expected, and the CPI showed a mild rebound with stable core inflation. Combined with the "dovish" speech of Powell, the Fed is likely to restart interest rate cuts in September, and the long - term U.S. bonds may have higher volatility [18][23][27]. 3.2 Domestic and Overseas Data Aggregation 3.2.1 Liquidity Tracking - Open - market operations: From September 5 to 12, 2025, the total net investment in open - market operations was 1961 billion yuan [33]. - Interest rate indicators: The money market interest rates, bond yields, and term spreads showed different degrees of changes during the week [34][46][49]. 3.2.2 Domestic and Overseas Macroeconomic Data Tracking - Domestic data: The total commercial housing transaction area decreased, steel prices fluctuated, and LME non - ferrous metal futures official prices generally increased [57][59]. - Overseas data: The U.S. consumer confidence index, CPI, PPI, and unemployment benefit claims data were released. Gold prices rose, and the U.S. bond yield curve moved down in parallel [17][21][23]. 3.3 Local Bond One - Week Review 3.3.1 Primary Market Issuance Overview - Issuance scale: A total of 53 local bonds were issued in the primary market this week, with a total issuance of 3016.72 billion yuan, a repayment of 1088.93 billion yuan, and a net financing of 1927.79 billion yuan [85]. - Regional distribution: 12 provinces and cities issued local bonds, with Guangdong, Guizhou, Guangxi, Sichuan, and Hunan ranking in the top five in terms of issuance volume. Hunan issued 20 billion yuan of special refinancing bonds for replacing hidden debts [88][90]. 3.3.2 Secondary Market Overview - Trading volume and turnover rate: The stock of local bonds was 53.29 trillion yuan, the trading volume was 4145.76 billion yuan, and the turnover rate was 0.78%. The top three provinces with active trading were Guangdong, Jiangsu, and Hebei [98]. 3.3.3 Local Bond Issuance Plan for This Month - The local bond issuance plan shows the planned issuance scale of different provinces and cities from September 15 to 19, 2025 [105]. 3.4 Credit Bond Market One - Week Review 3.4.1 Primary Market Issuance Overview - Total issuance and net financing: A total of 297 credit bonds were issued in the primary market this week, with a total issuance of 2812.62 billion yuan, a total repayment of 1893.91 billion yuan, and a net financing of 918.71 billion yuan, an increase of 1471.38 billion yuan compared with last week [106]. - Sub - category issuance: The net financing of urban investment bonds was 146.43 billion yuan, and that of industrial bonds was 772.29 billion yuan [107]. 3.4.2 Issuance Interest Rates - The issuance interest rates of short - term financing bills increased by 3.16 BP, medium - term notes decreased by 12.09 BP, and corporate bonds increased by 22.38 BP [115]. 3.4.3 Secondary Market Transaction Overview - The total trading volume of credit bonds in the secondary market was 4727.84 billion yuan, with different trading volumes for different bond types and credit ratings [117]. 3.4.4 Maturity Yields - The maturity yields of various credit bonds, including national development bonds, short - term financing bills, medium - term notes, corporate bonds, and urban investment bonds, generally increased [119][120][123][125]. 3.4.5 Credit Spreads - The credit spreads of short - term financing bills and medium - term notes showed a differentiated trend, the credit spreads of corporate bonds generally narrowed, and the credit spreads of urban investment bonds also showed a differentiated trend [128][131][135]. 3.4.6 Grade Spreads - The grade spreads of short - term financing bills and medium - term notes generally widened, the grade spreads of corporate bonds generally widened, and the grade spreads of urban investment bonds showed a differentiated trend [140][144][147].