9月FOMC前瞻：降息已成定局，关注点阵图指引与美联储独立性

Economic Indicators - August CPI in the US increased by 2.9% year-on-year, matching expectations, while the previous value was 2.7%[2] - Core CPI year-on-year remained at 3.1%, consistent with expectations and the previous value[2] - Non-farm employment was revised down by 911,000, significantly exceeding the expected revision of 682,000, marking the largest downward revision since 1979[3] Market Reactions - The anticipation of a 25 basis points rate cut in September is now fully priced in by the market, leading to a rise in US stocks[3] - The 10-year US Treasury yield decreased by 0.99 basis points to 4.064%, while the 2-year yield increased by 4.64 basis points to 3.555%[3] - The S&P 500 and Nasdaq indices rose by 1.59% and 2.03%, respectively, while gold prices increased by 1.57% to $3643 per ounce[3] Future Projections - The upcoming FOMC meeting is expected to reveal a more dovish dot plot, with guidance for 2 to 3 rate cuts in 2025[4] - The market is concerned about the potential increase in the number of Trump-appointed members in the Federal Reserve, which may affect its independence[4] Inflation and Economic Growth - The PPI for August showed a month-on-month decrease of 0.1%, against an expectation of 0.3%[3] - The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow model predicts a Q3 2025 GDP growth of 3.1%, while the New York Fed's Nowcast model estimates it at 2.08%[3]