财信证券宏观策略周报（9.15-9.19）：慢牛基础仍然存在，关注自主可控方向-20250914

Group 1 - The report indicates that the foundation for a slow bull market remains intact, with a focus on self-sufficiency and controllable directions such as information technology and chips [4][13]. - The upcoming week will see significant domestic and international events that may influence market direction, including the release of high-frequency economic data and discussions between China and the US regarding trade issues [4][7]. - The report highlights that the "anti-involution" policy is expected to improve performance expectations and liquidity as household savings enter the market, supporting the ongoing slow bull market [4][8]. Group 2 - Investment opportunities are identified in high-growth sectors, including self-sufficiency in technology, energy storage, new energy, and service consumption, particularly in tourism and dining as the National Day holiday approaches [4][14]. - The report notes that the demand for AI computing power remains high, with significant investments announced by major companies, indicating a robust outlook for the AI sector [11]. - The report emphasizes that the recent cooling of the US job market has strengthened expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, which could benefit sectors such as innovative pharmaceuticals and precious metals [12][14]. Group 3 - The report provides insights into market valuation levels, indicating that the TTM price-to-earnings ratio for the entire A-share market is at 22.25 times, which is at the 91.96 percentile of the past decade, suggesting that valuations are attractive despite current earnings being at a low point [8]. - The report discusses the impact of the "anti-involution" policy on the Producer Price Index (PPI), noting a narrowing decline in PPI, which could improve industrial profits [9]. - The report also highlights a slowdown in export growth due to high base effects and new tax regulations, indicating potential uncertainties in future export performance [10]. Group 4 - The report tracks market funding, noting that the balance of margin financing has shown fluctuations, which could indicate changing investor sentiment and market dynamics [38][42]. - The report mentions that the total social financing in August was 25,693 billion yuan, exceeding expectations, but the structure of financing still requires improvement, particularly in long-term credit demand from households and enterprises [8][12]. - The report indicates that the stock market's trading volume has decreased by 10.62% compared to the previous week, reflecting increased market caution [7][15].