国泰君安期货聚酯数据周报-20250914

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall trend of PX, PTA, and MEG in the polyester industry is weak, with supply pressure gradually emerging and demand expected to decline in the fourth quarter [3][4][6] - For PX, the unilateral trend may remain weak, and it is recommended to hold the 11 - 01 calendar spread long and the 1 - 5 calendar spread short, and take profit on the PXN compression position below $220 per ton [3] - For PTA, the unilateral trend is also weak, and the 1 - 5 calendar spread short and 11 - 1 calendar spread long are recommended, as well as going long on PX and short on PTA for the 01/05 contracts [4] - For MEG, the supply pressure is prominent, and the unilateral trend is weak. It is recommended to operate within the range of 4000 - 4400, hold the 1 - 5 calendar spread short, and go long on L and short on MEG [6] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 PX 3.1.1 Valuation and Profit - PX valuation has declined significantly due to cost collapse and weakening demand. The Zhengshang PX futures forward curve has fallen back, and the 1 - 5 calendar spread has rebounded, with attention paid to the calendar spread short [16][22] - Factory hedging positions have increased, naphtha has strengthened, and PXN has weakened. The overseas oil product crack spread is relatively strong, and the gasoline crack spread in Singapore and the United States is positive [23][30] - The toluene disproportionation is in a loss state, and the toluene blending profit has strengthened. The PX - MX spread has declined month - on - month, and the short - flow plant operating rate has increased [44][49] 3.1.2 Supply and Demand, Inventory - Domestic PX supply is gradually increasing. The domestic operating rate this week is 87.8% (+4.1%), and multiple plants have restarted or increased their loads. Overseas, some Japanese plants are expected to restart [51][55] - In July, the PX import volume was 780,000 tons, and the Asian PX plant operating rate this week is 79% (+2.7%). South Korea's PX exports to China have increased [57][59] - In August, the PX inventory decreased to 3.9 million tons (-240,000 tons) [77] 3.2 PTA 3.2.1 Valuation and Profit - The 1 - 5 calendar spread of PTA is in a short position. The cost has collapsed, the price has dropped significantly, and the basis has declined. The PTA spot processing fee has fallen to a record low this year [83][91] 3.2.2 Supply and Demand, Inventory - The PTA supply is gradually increasing, with an operating rate of 76.8% (+4%) this week. Multiple plants have restarted or are expected to restart, and some plants are scheduled for maintenance in October and November [93] - PTA exports increased from July to August. The inventory is at a low level, including total inventory, factory finished product inventory, and polyester factory PTA inventory [96][109] - The Morgan Qiankun PTA position has turned short again, and the short positions of foreign capital seats have increased [114][115] 3.3 MEG 3.3.1 Valuation and Profit - The basis of MEG has increased significantly. The valuation of MEG relative to ethylene oxide, styrene, and plastics has rebounded to a record high this year [126][130] - The coal - based MEG profit has declined but still remains profitable, while the loss of naphtha - based MEG has widened to - 850 (-80) yuan per ton, and the MTO profit has deteriorated [133] 3.3.2 Supply and Demand, Inventory - The MEG supply pressure is gradually emerging. The domestic operating rate is 74.9% (+0.8%), and the coal - based operating rate is 76.7% (+2%). The coal - based load will remain high [138] - In July and August, the expected import volumes are 590,000 tons and 600,000 tons respectively, and it is expected to increase in September. Some overseas plants have restarted or are scheduled for maintenance [140][142] - The European arbitrage window for MEG is gradually closing [143]