国泰君安期货美豆周度报告-20250914

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The overall view is that due to the expected high - yield in South America, there is no basis for a bull market. However, supported by cost, the probability of a sharp decline is small. The market is expected to be oscillating with an upward bias, within the range of 950 - 1150 cents per bushel [5]. - There are both bearish and bullish factors. Bearish factors include potential poor export situation of US soybeans due to US tariff policies, good weather in US soybean - growing areas leading to high yield expectations, and an expected 1.8% increase in Brazil's planting area in the 2025/26 season. Bullish factors are support from biodiesel policies and the expectation of improved China - US relations, a tight balance in the US soybean balance sheet, and the possibility that La Nina weather may delay Brazil's soybean planting [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Price - This week, US soybean prices oscillated and closed lower. The reasons were the market's expectation of discussions on US agricultural product procurement during the upcoming China - US official talks in Spain and a neutral WASD report. Next week, the focus will be on the China - US talks in Spain, the weather in the US and Brazil's main growing areas, and the progress of biodiesel policies [8]. - This week, US soybean meal prices rose. There was no obvious driving force, but the market expected that the new round of China - US talks would benefit agricultural product exports [10][11]. - This week, US soybean oil prices oscillated and closed higher. The increase was driven by the rise in US soybean prices, while the decline in palm oil prices suppressed the upward trend [13]. - As of August 29, the spot price of soybeans at US Gulf ports was $11.06 per bushel; the purchase price at farms (Iowa) was $9.85 per bushel, slightly down. As of September 11, the spot price of soybeans in south - western Iowa was $9.735 per bushel. As of September 12, the spot price of soybeans in Mato Grosso, Brazil, continued to rise to 121.17 reais per bag, and the spot price at Brazilian ports rose to 141.24 reais per bag [15][17][19][21][23]. Supply Factors - The drought situation in US soybean - growing areas has worsened, with a drought rate of 47% this week compared to 46% last week. In the next two weeks, the temperature in US growing areas will be warmer, with no threat of early frost, and precipitation will be less. In Brazil, most growing areas have less precipitation, while Rio Grande do Sul has slightly more, which is unfavorable for sowing. In Argentina, soybean - growing areas have normal to high precipitation, and sowing is expected to start in October. As of the week ending September 5, the good - to - excellent rate of US soybeans was 64%, down from 65% last week and the same as the same period last year [26][28][30][32][34][36]. Demand Factors - As of August 29, the US soybean crushing profit was $3.08 per bushel, up from $2.71 last week. The weekly export volume of US soybeans was 640,000 tons, up from 450,000 tons last week. The weekly export inspection and quarantine volume was 452,100 tons, down from 472,900 tons last week. The net sales this year were 1.3894 million tons, up from - 23,000 tons last week. The sales for the next year were 1.074 million tons, up from 818,400 tons last week. The quantity shipped to China last week was 0 tons [39][41][43][45][47][49]. Other Factors - The latest value of the ENSO (NINO3.4 anomaly index) is - 0.738, indicating the entry into the La Nina range. The soybean planting costs in Brazil and the US have decreased. As of September 2, the net short position of soybeans in CFTC was 4,100 lots, down from 19,200 lots last week. As of September 9, the net long position of soybean oil was 17,500 lots, down from 33,300 lots last week. The net short position of soybean meal was 56,700 lots, down from 72,000 lots last week [52][54][60][62][64].