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宏观周报:政治干预下降息周期将如何开启?-20250914
Yin He Zheng Quan·2025-09-14 10:19

Domestic Macro - Demand Side - In September, the retail sales of passenger cars reached 304,000 units, a year-on-year decrease of 10.3% and a month-on-month decrease of 3.8%[1] - As of September 12, the average number of domestic flights was 12,800, a month-on-month decrease of 12.6% and a year-on-year decrease of 0.01%[1] - The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) averaged 2023.7, a month-on-month increase of 1.12% and a year-on-year increase of 2.84%[1] Domestic Macro - Production Side - As of September 13, the average operating rate of blast furnaces rebounded by 3.47 percentage points to 83.58%[1] - The operating rate of rebar production averaged 42.62%, a month-on-month decrease of 1.26 percentage points[2] - The operating rate of PTA production increased by 5.47 percentage points to 74.95%[1] Price Performance - As of September 12, the average wholesale price of pork increased by 0.14% week-on-week, while the price of eggs rose by 2.41% week-on-week[1] - The PPI for August showed a year-on-year increase of 2.6%[4] - WTI crude oil prices decreased by 1.87% and Brent crude oil prices decreased by 1.22% as of September 12[2] Monetary and Liquidity - The central bank will conduct a 600 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation on September 15, with a net injection of 300 billion yuan for the month[3] - The average daily transaction volume of interbank pledged repos increased to 7.5 trillion yuan[3] - The 10-year government bond yield rose to 1.8670%, an increase of 4 basis points[3] Overseas Macro and Market - The U.S. CPI for August rose by 2.9% year-on-year, in line with expectations[4] - The initial jobless claims in the U.S. surged to 263,000, the highest level since October 2021[4] - The Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index for September fell to 55.4, the lowest since May of this year[4]