动力煤产业链周度报告-20250914

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report presents a comprehensive analysis of the thermal coal industry, covering aspects such as supply, demand, inventory, and transportation. It shows that thermal coal port spot prices have slightly rebounded, supply has shown mixed trends with some increases and some contractions, demand has weakened in certain sectors like power generation, and inventory levels vary across different entities. The influence of alternative energy sources on thermal coal demand is also significant. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Thermal Coal Fundamentals Data - Thermal coal port spot quotes have slightly rebounded [4] 3.2 Supply - Domestic production: In the last two months, domestic production has contracted year - on - year, but this week's supply has increased week - on - week. As of September 12, the output of 462 sample mines was about 38.682 million tons, a 2.7% week - on - week increase, and capacity utilization slightly recovered. These 462 samples involve a capacity of 2.11 billion tons, accounting for about 65% of the country's total thermal coal mine capacity. In July 2025, the total raw coal production was 380.987 million tons, a 10% month - on - month and 2.4% year - on - year decrease, with synchronous declines in Shaanxi, Shanxi, and Inner Mongolia [6][8][9] - Global supply: The global coal port outbound volume has contracted week - on - week. The increase in coal floating to China is mainly from Australia. As of September 5, the main inbound volume of thermal coal was 8.1653 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 135,600 tons but a year - on - year increase of 384,600 tons [11][13][15] 3.3 Demand - Power generation demand: It has weakened significantly. The blast furnace start - up rate has decreased, weakening the metallurgical demand support. Although the cement clinker capacity utilization rate has slightly increased year - on - year and month - on - month, the construction demand has decreased significantly. This week, the metallurgical, construction, and chemical demands have increased week - on - week, but the power generation demand is relatively weak year - on - year. The average daily consumption of 25 provinces this week was 5.69 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 460,000 tons and a week - on - week decrease of 90,000 tons. The average daily consumption of eight coastal provinces was 2.335 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 69,000 tons but a week - on - week increase of 35,700 tons. The average daily consumption of 17 inland provinces was 3.3517 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 394,100 tons and a week - on - week decrease of 124,700 tons [19][20][21] - Chemical demand: It has rebounded week - on - week [22] - Demand substitution: New energy power generation has significantly contributed, and thermal power generation has decreased year - on - year. Alternative energy sources have enhanced their contribution [32][35] - Total demand: Power consumption demand provides obvious support, while coal consumption in construction and metallurgy has decreased year - on - year and month - on - month [38] 3.4 Inventory - Mine inventory: As of September 12, the inventory of thermal coal sample enterprises' mines was 3.063 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 310,000 tons but a year - on - year increase of 1.724 million tons. Although it has decreased significantly, it is still at a relatively high historical level [41] - Bohai Rim port inventory: It has slightly increased [44] 3.5 Transportation - The center of the thermal coal freight index has moved upward [47]