择时雷达六面图：本周基本面与估值分数下行

• The timing radar six-dimensional model is constructed based on multiple dimensions including liquidity, economic fundamentals, valuation, capital flow, technical signals, and crowding indicators, with 21 metrics categorized into four major groups: "valuation cost-effectiveness," "macro fundamentals," "capital & trend," and "crowding & reversal" to generate a comprehensive timing score ranging from [-1,1][1][6][8] - Liquidity dimension includes factors such as monetary direction, monetary strength, credit direction, and credit strength. For example, the monetary direction factor is calculated using the average change in central bank policy rates and short-term market rates over the past 90 days. If the factor is greater than 0, it indicates a loose monetary policy environment[12][15][17] - Economic dimension includes growth direction, growth strength, inflation direction, and inflation strength factors. For instance, the growth direction factor is derived from PMI data, calculating the 12-month average and year-over-year change. If the factor shows an upward trend compared to three months ago, it signals a positive outlook[24][27][31] - Valuation dimension includes metrics such as Shiller ERP, PB, and AIAE. For example, Shiller ERP is calculated as $1/Shiller PE - 10-year government bond yield$, with a z-score based on the past six years' data[36][38][42] - Capital flow dimension is divided into domestic and foreign capital metrics. Domestic metrics include margin trading increment and turnover trend, while foreign metrics include China's sovereign CDS spread and overseas risk aversion index. For instance, the CDS spread factor signals foreign capital inflow when the 20-day differential is less than 0[45][52][55] - Technical dimension includes price trend and new highs/lows metrics. For example, the price trend factor is calculated using the moving average distance $(ma120/ma240-1)$, with scores determined by the trend direction and strength[58][61][63] - Crowding dimension includes derivative signals such as implied premium, VIX, SKEW, and convertible bond pricing deviation. For instance, the implied premium factor is derived from the 50ETF's 5-day return and percentile ranking, signaling market crowding levels[64][65][70] - Current scores for the six dimensions are as follows: liquidity 0.25, economic fundamentals -0.25, valuation -0.40, capital flow 0.00, technical signals -0.50, and crowding 0.00, resulting in a comprehensive timing score of -0.15[7][8][10]