美国通胀压力尚存，美元继续看跌

Report Industry Investment Rating - The rating for the US dollar is "Oscillating" [5] Core Viewpoints of the Report - The US inflation pressure persists, and the US dollar is expected to continue its downward trend. The market is waiting for the outcome of the Fed's September interest rate meeting. If the Fed takes a hawkish stance, the market may face a correction. The ECB kept its policy unchanged in September and entered a data - dependent wait - and - see phase [1][2] Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. Global Market Overview This Week - Market risk appetite remained high. Most global stock markets rose, and most bond yields increased. The yield of US Treasury bonds slightly decreased to 4.06%. The US dollar index dropped 0.22% to 97.55, and most non - US currencies appreciated. Gold prices rose 1.6% to $3643 per ounce, the VIX index fell to 14.7, the spot commodity index fluctuated, and Brent crude oil rose 3.8% to $67.6 per barrel [1][5][9] 2. Market Trading Logic and Asset Performance 2.1 Stock Market - Most global stock markets rose. The S&P 500 in the US rose 1.59%, the Shanghai Composite Index in China rose 1.52%, the Hang Seng Index in Hong Kong rose 3.82%, and the Nikkei 225 in Japan rose 4.07%. The US inflation has stickiness, and the employment market is weakening. The market is waiting for the Fed's September interest rate meeting. If the Fed is hawkish, the market may correct. China's August import and export data were below expectations, and inflation recovery is slow [10][11] 2.2 Bond Market - Most global bond yields increased, and the yield of 10 - year US Treasury bonds slightly decreased to 4.06%. The market's concern about inflation eased after the US August PPI was lower than expected, but the rebound of CPI limited the downward space of US Treasury bond yields. Eurozone government bond yields mostly increased, and emerging - market bond yields showed mixed trends. China's 10 - year government bond yield rose to 1.8%, and the bond market remained under pressure [14][18][20] 2.3 Foreign Exchange Market - The US dollar index dropped 0.22% to 97.55, and most non - US currencies appreciated. The offshore RMB rose 0.02%, the euro rose 0.14%, the pound rose 0.34%, the Swiss franc rose 0.18%, while the yen fell 0.17%, and the Canadian dollar and the Korean won depreciated. The Australian dollar, New Zealand dollar, rand, real, Thai baht, and peso appreciated by more than 1% [24][25][27] 2.4 Commodity Market - Spot gold rose 1.6% to $3643 per ounce, reaching a new high. However, it may face short - term correction risks. Brent crude oil rose 3.8% to $67.6 per barrel, but its long - term upward trend may not be sustainable. The spot commodity index fluctuated [28][29][30] 3. Hot - Spot Tracking - The US inflation met expectations. The CPI rebounded as expected, and the PPI was lower than expected. Inflation may face further upward pressure in the short term, and the labor market may be weaker than it seems [31][33] 4. Next Week's Important Event Reminders - Next week, there will be interest rate meetings of the Fed, the Bank of England, and the Bank of Japan, as well as the release of important economic data such as China's August social retail and industrial growth, and the US August retail sales [35]