交通运输行业周报：快递提价弹性有望验证，油运运价持续上涨-20250914

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the transportation industry is "Positive" (maintained) [4] Core Views - The express logistics sector is expected to see price increases due to a "de-involution" initiative in Anhui Province, which aims to combat unhealthy price competition and promote high-quality industry development. Starting September 15, 2025, express prices in Anhui will rise by no less than 0.2 yuan per ticket, which is anticipated to help stabilize prices in the central and eastern regions of China [4][3] - The shipping sector is experiencing a significant increase in freight rates, with VLCC TD3c TCE rising to $82,674 per day, a 34.13% increase from the previous week. This surge is attributed to the seasonal release of cargo volumes and geopolitical factors affecting oil exports [6][7] - The aviation sector is witnessing a recovery in ticket prices, with a positive year-on-year growth trend observed since August 13, 2025. This is driven by a rebound in business travel and inbound tourism, suggesting a potential for continued price increases [8][9] Summary by Sections Express Logistics - The express logistics industry is showing resilience in demand, with a focus on reducing unhealthy competition. Companies like YTO Express, Shentong Express, and SF Express are expected to benefit from this trend, with potential for improved profitability and valuation [11] Shipping - The oil transportation market is expected to benefit from OPEC+ production increases and a favorable economic environment. Companies such as China Merchants Energy and COSCO Shipping Energy are recommended for investment [11] - The dry bulk shipping market is also anticipated to recover, driven by environmental regulations and increased demand for commodities. Companies like China Merchants Industry Holdings and Haitong Development are highlighted as potential investment opportunities [11] Aviation - The aviation industry is projected to experience long-term growth due to low supply growth and improving demand. Key companies to watch include China Southern Airlines and China Eastern Airlines, which are expected to benefit from this trend [11] Supply Chain Logistics - Companies like Shenzhen International and Debon Logistics are positioned well for growth due to industry dynamics and strategic transformations [11] Ports - The port sector is seen as stable with strong cash flows, and companies like China Merchants Port and Tangshan Port are recommended for their growth potential [11]