生猪市场周度报告-20250914

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply - demand pattern in the pig market remains supply - strong and demand - weak, and the spot price lacks a basis for a significant rebound. It is expected that the spot price will mainly fluctuate at a low level. The slowdown in the market supply rhythm has limited impact on price improvement. Although the decline in the spot price has narrowed, September is still a stage with relatively large theoretical出栏 pressure. The near - month futures contracts should be operated with a short - selling strategy on rallies [6]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Data Overview and Market Views - Price Indicators: The national average price of standard pigs this week was 13.26 yuan/kg, a week - on - week decrease of 0.46 yuan/kg and a decline of 3.35%. The average price of standard pigs in different regions showed differentiation, with the lowest in Guangxi at 12.43 yuan/kg. The price of piglets continued to decline rapidly, with the national average price falling below 300 yuan/head. The price of sows decreased slightly, and the price of white - striped pigs also declined, with a deeper decline than that of live pigs, and the price difference between live pigs and white - striped pigs narrowed [4]. - Capacity Indicators: The official inventory of reproductive sows in July was 40420,000 heads, a month - on - month decrease of 10,000 heads. The indicators of the average number of healthy piglets per litter and the fattening survival rate remained stable. The inventory of commercial pigs continued to increase, and the planned monthly出栏 volume of major institutions in September showed an upward trend. The theoretical出栏 volume from September to December is expected to increase month - by - month, indicating a relatively large supply pressure [4]. - Demand Indicators: The sample slaughter volume continued to increase, and the slaughter start - up rate rose, indicating sufficient market supply. The demand improvement in September was uneven, and attention should be paid to the impact of the pre - holiday stocking demand at the end of the month on the consumer market [5]. - Cost and Profit Indicators: The continuous decline in the spot price led to a reduction in the profits of the breeding end, especially the mode of purchasing piglets was in deep losses. The ratio of pig price to grain price was below 6 for two consecutive weeks, and there were high calls for the government to purchase and store pigs to support the price. The Ministry of Commerce's anti - dumping measures against imported pork from the EU had a relatively large impact on the import market, but it was difficult to reverse the supply - demand fundamentals [5]. - Futures Market Indicators: The spot price continued to decline, the near - month futures contracts followed the spot price downwards, and the valuation of the far - month contracts was re - structured [5]. 3.2 Market Price Trends - The report presents the historical price trends of standard pigs, white - striped pigs, piglets, and sows from 2022 to 2025 through charts, showing the price fluctuations in different years and months [9]. 3.3 Pig Market Balance Sheet - From March to May, the supply - demand gap was the same as the previous year; from June to August, the supply - demand gap widened rapidly and was higher than the previous year [13]. 3.4 Capacity and Supply Data - Sow Inventory: The official inventory of reproductive sows and the sample inventory data of Steel Union showed a slight decline. The total elimination volume of reproductive sows and the elimination volume of different subjects were also presented, and the birth number, sales volume of piglets, and the sales volume of piglet feed and fattening feed were also included [16][22]. - Litter Efficiency: The report shows the historical data of breeding farrowing rate, average number of healthy piglets per litter, fattening survival rate, and survival rate of piglets from 2020 to 2025. The PSY of 16 listed pig - raising enterprises has been increasing year by year, which is an important reason for the continuous over - expectation of piglet supply [32][34]. - Commercial Pig Inventory and出栏: The inventory of commercial pigs continued to increase, and the planned出栏 volume of major institutions in September showed an upward trend. The report also presented the inventory structure of different weights,出栏 weight, and price differences between standard and fat pigs [4][36]. 3.5 Slaughter Volume and Market Demand - Slaughter Situation: The fresh - selling rate, daily slaughter volume, capacity utilization rate, and start - up rate of slaughter enterprises from 2021 to 2025 were presented. In July 2025, the slaughter volume of large - scale designated pig slaughtering enterprises was 31.66 million heads, a month - on - month increase of 5.3% and a year - on - year increase of 30.4%. From January to July 2025, the slaughter volume was 215.21 million heads, a year - on - year increase of 16.6% [57][58]. - Market Supply: The report shows the historical data of the wholesale volume of white - striped pigs in Xinfadi Market, the arrival volume of white - striped pigs in Shanghai Western Suburb Market and Nanhuanqiao Market, and the price trends of beef, mutton, chicken, and fish from 2021 to 2025 [59][68]. 3.6 Breeding Costs and Industrial Profits - The report presents the historical trends of profits from purchasing piglets and self - breeding and self - raising, the price of fattening feed, the ratio of pig price to grain price, and the current and expected breeding costs of different breeding modes from 2021 to 2025 [72][80]. 3.7 Futures Market Situation - Futures Contract Trends: The report shows the price trends of different futures contracts (01, 03, 05, 07, 09, 11) from 2022 to 2026 [94]. - Basis Trends: The basis trends of different futures contracts from 2023 to 2026 were presented [104]. - Contract Spread Trends: The spread trends between different futures contracts from 2022 to 2026 were presented [113].