聚丙烯产业链周报：供需压力仍大，继续偏弱震荡-20250914

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core View of the Report The polypropylene market continues to oscillate weakly due to significant supply - demand pressure [1]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Recent Market Main Contradictions There is no specific content about recent market main contradictions in the provided text. 3.2 Polypropylene Supply - Demand Situation - Supply - Production: This week's production decreased slightly to 78.67 million tons with new maintenance devices. In the next two weeks, device maintenance will decrease, and production may increase to around 81 million tons [6]. - Maintenance Loss: This week, the maintenance loss was 19.19 million tons, an increase of 1.45 million tons compared to last week. In the next two weeks, it is expected to be 17.08 million tons and 16.08 million tons respectively [6]. - Import and Export: The weekly average import and export volumes remained unchanged at 6.12 million tons and 5.76 million tons respectively. In July, exports were 26.36 million tons and imports were 28.24 million tons, in line with expectations [6]. - Demand - Apparent Demand: This week, the apparent demand was 78.72 million tons, an increase of 3.59 million tons compared to last week. Next week, it is expected to be around 83 million tons according to seasonality [6]. - Inventory - Total Inventory: This week, there was a slight de - stocking, with the total inventory increasing from 83.34 million tons to 83.66 million tons. Next week, it is expected to continue to de - stock slightly [6]. - Upstream Inventory: The upstream inventory of "Two - Oil", coal - chemical, PDH, and refineries all showed a slight de - stocking trend, indicating a slight improvement in domestic apparent demand [6]. - Mid - stream Inventory: The mid - stream port inventory and trader inventory also showed a slight de - stocking trend [6]. 3.3 Polypropylene Basis and Spread - Basis: The overall basis showed an oscillating trend, with limited basis opportunities. The East China basis decreased from - 160 to - 180, the North China basis increased from - 120 to - 100, and the South China basis increased from - 220 to - 210 [9]. - Inter - month Spread: The inter - month spread oscillated. The 1 - 5 spread decreased from - 15 to - 23, the 5 - 9 spread increased from 127 to 149, and the 9 - 1 spread decreased from - 112 to - 126 [9]. - Variety Spread: The variety spread was relatively stable. The fiber - to - drawn spread increased from 250 to 270, the copolymer - to - drawn spread remained at 250, and the injection - to - drawn spread remained at 50 [9]. - Disk Spread: The PP - 3MA spread showed a strengthening trend. The PP - 3MA 01 contract increased from - 284 to - 224, the 05 contract increased from - 254 to - 219, and the 09 contract increased from 69 to 97. The LL - PP spread showed an oscillating and weakening trend [9]. 3.4 Summary and Outlook - Upstream: Upstream maintenance is gradually entering the peak period, but the overall supply remains relatively sufficient. The upstream's main strategy is to actively sell goods [11]. - Mid - stream: The mid - stream's shipment situation has slightly worsened. After the market decline, some futures - cash arbitrageurs have a chance to sell goods [11]. - Downstream: The downstream's replenishment willingness has weakened. After large - scale replenishment earlier, they are currently digesting inventory and have a low willingness to stock up before the festival [11]. - Strategy - Cross - variety: There are currently no suitable cross - variety strategies [11]. - Single - side: The market is expected to oscillate weakly [11]. - Options: A strategy of selling call options is recommended [11].