KAIYUAN SECURITIES·2025-09-14 11:27Investment Rating - The investment rating for the coal industry is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The report indicates that coal prices have rebounded at the long-term contract benchmark of 675 CNY/ton, with a stable layout in the coal sector [1][13] - The report highlights that the current prices for thermal coal and coking coal have reached a turning point, with expectations for further price recovery [4][13] - The report emphasizes the dual logic of cyclical elasticity and stable dividends in coal stocks, suggesting that the current low holdings in coal provide a good opportunity for investment [5][14] Summary by Sections Investment Logic - Thermal coal is categorized as a policy coal type, with prices expected to rebound to the long-term contract price, currently above the second target price of around 700 CNY [4][13] - The report predicts that the thermal coal price will reach the third target price of approximately 750 CNY in 2025, with a potential peak at around 860 CNY [4][13] - Coking coal prices are more influenced by supply and demand dynamics, with target prices set at 1608 CNY, 1680 CNY, 1800 CNY, and 2064 CNY corresponding to thermal coal price targets [4][13] Investment Recommendations - The report outlines four main lines for selecting coal stocks: 1. Cyclical logic: Companies like Jinko Coal and Yanzhou Coal 2. Dividend logic: Companies like China Shenhua and China Coal Energy 3. Diversified aluminum elasticity: Companies like Shenhua Energy and Electric Power Investment 4. Growth logic: Companies like Xinji Energy and Guanghui Energy [5][14] Market Performance - The coal index experienced a slight increase of 0.33%, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 1.05 percentage points [8][28] - The average PE ratio for the coal sector is 13.17, ranking it among the lowest in the A-share market, while the PB ratio is 1.23 [28]