聚乙烯产业链周报：市场情绪转弱，盘面继续走弱-20250914

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The polyethylene market is currently in a state of weakening market sentiment and a downward - trending market. The overall market is expected to show a weak and volatile trend, with suggestions to sell call options [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Recent Market Main Contradictions - This week's polyethylene production decreased, with domestic production dropping from 63.25 million tons last week to 61.28 million tons, a decrease of 1.97 million tons. Next week, production may slightly increase as some devices resume production after maintenance. Import and export volumes remained stable this week, with imports at 25.68 million tons and exports at 2.50 million tons. Apparent demand decreased significantly from 84.20 million tons last week to 80.86 million tons, a decrease of 3.34 million tons. There was a slight inventory build - up this week, with total inventory rising from 101.13 million tons to 104.73 million tons, and it is expected to continue to build up slightly next week [5]. 3.2 Polyethylene Industry Situation 3.2.1 Supply - In terms of production, although there are many upstream maintenance devices, the current output is still relatively high, and the upstream supply of goods is relatively sufficient. In 2025, new production capacity will continue to be released, such as the production capacity of Inner Mongolia Baofeng, Exxon (Huizhou), etc. [7][20]. 3.2.2 Cost and Profit - Raw material prices are in a weakening state. Crude oil prices fluctuated, rising from $65.50 last week to $66.37, and coal prices decreased from 690 to 681. PE costs have been fluctuating recently, with oil - made PE costs rising from 7803 to 7868, and coal - made PE costs remaining unchanged at 6669. Upstream profits are expected to weaken next week, with oil - chemical comprehensive profits dropping from - 1595 to - 1644, and weighted profits of PE by production capacity dropping from - 654 to - 697 [6]. 3.2.3 Market Conditions of Up, Middle, and Downstream - Upstream: Although there are many maintenance devices, the output is still high, and the upstream is actively selling goods. - Middle - stream: The middle - stream's sales situation has deteriorated, with fewer purchases from downstream and active sales by spot - futures arbitrageurs. - Downstream: This week's trading volume was average, with downstream mainly purchasing as needed. The downstream is gradually entering the peak season, which provides some support [7]. 3.3 Basis and Spread - The PE spot market price fluctuated weakly, and the intraday basis quotes fluctuated. On Friday, the North China basis quote was around 01 - 50, and downstream purchasing enthusiasm was average. The inter - month spread was in a state of fluctuation, and the far - month LL - PP spread is recommended to be temporarily observed. The import profit has deteriorated [49][6]. 3.4 Summary and Outlook - Strategy: In terms of trading strategies, a weak and volatile trend is expected in the short - term, and it is recommended to sell call options [7].