能源化工合成橡胶周度报告-20250914

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals and macro - sentiment of synthetic rubber are in intensified contradiction, and it will operate in a volatile manner. The supply pressure of butadiene is the main contradiction in the medium - to - long term, and its fundamentals are still under significant pressure [2][4][6]. - For synthetic rubber, the supply growth rate is higher than the demand growth rate under the pattern of both supply and demand increase, and the inventory pressure of butadiene rubber has increased. However, due to the expected preventive interest rate cut by the Fed and the "anti - involution" policy, the market has certain support, and the price will fluctuate within the fundamental valuation range [4][5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Synthetic Rubber Weekly Viewpoint - Supply: Shandong Weite, Taixiang Yubu, and Haopu New Materials' butadiene rubber plants stopped for maintenance this week. The output of high - cis butadiene rubber was 29,500 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 3.52%, and the capacity utilization rate was 73.48%, a week - on - week decrease of 2.68 percentage points. As of September 10, 2025, the inventory of domestic butadiene rubber sample enterprises increased by 8.15% week - on - week [4]. - Demand: The capacity utilization rate of sample tire production enterprises increased significantly this week and is expected to remain stable next week. The substitution demand remains high, and the overall demand for butadiene rubber maintains a high year - on - year growth rate [4][5]. - Strategy: For unilateral trading, short at high levels within the fundamental static valuation range without chasing short positions, and also refer to macro - sentiment. The upper pressure is 12,000 - 12,100 yuan/ton, and the lower support is 11,000 - 11,100 yuan/ton. For cross - variety trading, the nr - br spread will fluctuate in the short term [4][5]. 3.2 This Week's Butadiene Viewpoint - Supply: In the current cycle (20250905 - 0911), the estimated weekly output of Chinese butadiene industry sample enterprises was 103,300 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.18%. Next week, it is expected to be about 102,500 tons, still showing a downward trend [6]. - Demand: The operating rates of butadiene rubber and styrene - butadiene rubber remain high, and the demand for butadiene maintains a high year - on - year level. The demand from ABS is expected to remain constant, and the demand from SBS remains stable [8]. - Inventory: The total inventory of domestic butadiene samples decreased slightly this week, with the sample enterprise inventory down 0.81% week - on - week and the sample port inventory down 17.29% week - on - week. However, there are still expectations of ship arrivals, so inventory changes need to be closely monitored [8]. 3.3 Butadiene Fundamentals - Capacity: Butadiene is in a state of continuous expansion to match the expansion of downstream industries, and the expansion speed and amplitude are slightly faster than those of downstream industries at certain stages [13]. - Supply - side - Operating Rate: The operating rate of butadiene has fluctuated, and many plants have experienced maintenance or shutdowns [17][18]. - Net Imports: The net imports of butadiene have shown certain fluctuations, and the import profit is also affected by market prices [20]. - Demand - side - Capacity and Operation of Downstream Products: The capacities of downstream products such as butadiene rubber, styrene - butadiene rubber, ABS, and SBS are expanding, and their operating rates and production plans vary [22][23][29][33]. 3.4 Synthetic Rubber Fundamentals - Supply of Butadiene Rubber: The output of butadiene rubber has fluctuated, and many plants have normal operations, maintenance plans, or shutdowns. The cost, profit, and inventory of butadiene rubber have also shown corresponding changes [43][44][45]. - Demand of Butadiene Rubber - Tire: The inventory and operating rates of domestic tires (including all - steel tires and semi - steel tires) in Shandong Province have shown certain trends, and the demand for butadiene rubber from the tire industry is affected by these factors [57][58].