烧碱：短期偏弱，PVC：低位震荡

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for caustic soda is short - term weak [5][6] - The investment rating for PVC is low - level oscillation [9][10] Report's Core View - Caustic soda currently lacks upward drivers, with the main obstacles being exports and alumina. The market is short - term weak as the futures market is trading the pressure on spot prices in Shandong, alumina pre - production stockpiling hasn't started, and exports haven't improved [6] - PVC is in a situation of high production and high inventory, and exports may face policy disturbances with a potential slowdown in growth. The market trend is under pressure, and it will experience low - level oscillation [10] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Viewpoint Overview Caustic Soda - Supply: The average capacity utilization rate of Chinese caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons or more is 83.4%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.8%. There were production cuts and shutdowns in Northwest, Central, East, and South China, while in North China, there were both production cuts and capacity increases [5] - Demand: In the alumina sector, high production and high inventory are compressing profits, and marginal capacity supply may be affected by profits. Non - aluminum demand is rising seasonally. Export orders are poor recently, and the price difference between 50% caustic soda and 32% caustic soda is weak [5][6] - Viewpoint: Caustic soda lacks upward drivers, and the futures market is trading the price cuts of spot goods in Shandong. It is short - term weak [6] PVC - Supply: The high - production structure of PVC is difficult to change in the short term. There are still many new capacities to be put into production, especially from August to September, with an expected production of 1.1 million tons [10] - Demand: The competition in the PVC export market has intensified in 2025. Domestic demand related to the real estate industry is still weak, and enterprises have low inventory - building willingness [10] - Viewpoint: PVC will experience low - level oscillation, with the 01 contract having an upper pressure level of 5000, lower support levels of 4850 and 4700 [10] 2. Caustic Soda Price and Spread - Price: The price of the cheapest deliverable 32% caustic soda in Shandong is about 2,656 yuan/ton [15] - Spread: The 01 basis of caustic soda has strengthened, and the 11 - 1 spread has weakened. The export market still has support, but recent export orders are poor. The regional arbitrage space is limited, but attention should be paid to the high spread between flake caustic soda and liquid caustic soda. The spread between 50% caustic soda and 32% caustic soda is lower than the evaporation cost, which is negative for caustic soda [19][20][35] 3. Caustic Soda Supply - Market Structure: Production and inventory are both declining, and the structure is relatively strong. The average capacity utilization rate of Chinese caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons or more is 83.4%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.8% [41] - Inventory: The factory inventory of fixed liquid caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons or more in China is 356,800 tons (wet tons), a week - on - week decrease of 7.99% and a year - on - year increase of 15.48% [43] - Production Capacity: There are still many new caustic soda production capacities to be put into production in 2025, but overall production may fall short of expectations. The actual capacity expansion will be weaker than expected, with a potential capacity increase of about 2% [47][50] - Profit: Liquid chlorine is weak, leading to a decline in the overall profit of caustic soda. The cost of marginal production facilities in Shandong is calculated to be 2,277 yuan/ton [52][54] 4. Caustic Soda Demand - Alumina: Alumina production is at a high level, inventory is rising, and profits are declining. Attention should be paid to the alumina production capacity scheduled to be put into operation at the end of this year and the pre - production tank - filling demand [79][89] - Pulp Industry: The pulp industry is continuing to expand production capacity, and demand is gradually shifting to the peak season [91] - Other Industries: The operating rates of viscose staple fiber and printing and dyeing industries are rising, and short - term demand is increasing month - on - month. The operating rates of the water treatment and ternary precursor industries are stable [103][105][107] 5. PVC Price and Spread - Basis and Spread: The PVC basis is oscillating, and the 1 - 5 spread is oscillating weakly [114] 6. PVC Supply and Demand - Supply: The operating rate of PVC is increasing month - on - month and is still relatively high year - on - year. There are still seasonal maintenance plans from September to October in 2025. There are many new PVC production capacities to be put into production, with a total of 2.2 million tons expected to be put into operation in 2025 [120][122][123] - Profit: The integrated production facilities in Northwest China have decent profits. In 2025, special attention should be paid to the profit of caustic soda [125] - Inventory: PVC production enterprises and the social inventory are both increasing [129] - Demand: The real - estate terminal demand has not significantly recovered. The overall operating rate of PVC downstream industries is increasing month - on - month. PVC export expectations are weakening, and warehouse receipts are continuously increasing [134][140][146]