Group 1: Investment Ratings - The investment rating for soybean meal is "sideways, pay attention to China-US economic and trade talks" [1] - The investment rating for soybean No.1 is "sideways, pay attention to technical aspects and market sentiment" [2] Group 2: Core Views - Last week (09.08 - 09.12), US soybean futures prices mainly rose due to the upcoming China-US economic and trade talks in Spain and the easing sentiment of trade frictions. The September USDA supply and demand report had little impact, and the focus of US soybeans remained on "China-US economic and trade talks" and "export demand" [2] - Last week, domestic soybean meal futures prices slightly rebounded, and soybean No.1 futures prices fluctuated. The stable import cost of Brazilian soybeans and the rebound of US soybeans drove the soybean meal futures market to rise slightly. The decline of soybean meal futures prices on the Friday night session was expected to be a trade reaction to the "easing of China-US trade frictions". The soybean No.1 futures market was mainly based on technical trading, and the fundamental marginal changes were small [2] - Next week (09.15 - 09.19), it is expected that the futures prices of Dalian soybean meal and soybean No.1 will fluctuate. The trading focus of the soybean market still lies in the "economic and trade talks", waiting for further guidance. The spot market of domestic soybeans is waiting for the new soybeans to be listed, and the spot prices are stable and weak. The futures market has fallen in advance and is expected to fluctuate at a low level [7] Group 3: Summary of International Soybean Market Fundamentals - US soybean net sales decreased week-on-week and were at the lower end of expectations, with a neutral to bearish impact. In the week ending September 4, the export shipment of US soybeans in the 2025/26 season was about 230,000 tons, a year-on-year decrease of about 26%. The cumulative export shipment was about 230,000 tons, a year-on-year decrease of about 26%. The weekly net sales of US soybeans in the current crop year (2025/26) were about 540,000 tons (about 820,000 tons in the previous week), at the lower end of expectations (400,000 - 1.6 million tons). The weekly net sales of US soybeans to China in the current crop year (2025/26) were 0 (0 in the previous week) [2] - The US soybean good-to-excellent rate decreased week-on-week and was slightly higher than expected, with a slightly bullish impact. As of the week ending September 8, the good-to-excellent rate of US soybeans was 64% (market expectation: 63%), 65% in the previous week, and 65% in the same period last year [2] - The CNF premium of Brazilian soybeans, import cost, and futures market crushing profit: As of the week ending September 12, the average weekly CNF premium of Brazilian soybeans for November delivery increased week-on-week, the average import cost remained stable week-on-week, and the average futures market crushing profit increased slightly week-on-week [2] - The planting of new Brazilian soybeans has started, slightly earlier than last year. As of the week ending September 4, the sowing progress of Brazilian soybeans in the 2025/26 season was about 0.02%, and sowing had not started in the same period last year [2] - The September USDA supply and demand report was slightly bearish but had little impact. The report slightly increased the US soybean planting area in 2025, slightly decreased the yield per unit estimate, and slightly increased the total output. In terms of demand, domestic demand increased, export demand decreased, and the ending inventory slightly increased [2] - China and the US will hold economic and trade talks in Spain. From September 14 to 17, a Chinese delegation led by Vice Premier He Lifeng will hold talks with the US side in Spain to discuss issues such as unilateral tariff measures, abuse of export controls, and TikTok [2][4] Group 4: Summary of Domestic Soybean Meal Spot Situation - The trading volume of soybean meal increased week-on-week. As of the week ending September 12, the average daily trading volume of soybean meal in major domestic oil mills was about 170,000 tons, compared with about 100,000 tons in the previous week [5] - The提货量 of soybean meal increased week-on-week. As of the week ending September 12, the average daily提货量 of soybean meal in major oil mills was about 198,000 tons, compared with about 192,000 tons in the previous week [5] - The basis of soybean meal decreased week-on-week. As of the week ending September 12, the average weekly basis of soybean meal (Zhangjiagang) was about -42 yuan/ton, compared with about -11 yuan/ton in the previous week and about -25 yuan/ton in the same period last year [5] - The inventory of soybean meal increased week-on-week and decreased year-on-year. As of the week ending September 5, the inventory of soybean meal in major domestic oil mills was about 1.02 million tons, a week-on-week increase of 6% and a year-on-year decrease of about 17% [5] - The soybean crushing volume increased week-on-week and is expected to increase slightly next week. As of the week ending September 12, the weekly soybean crushing volume in domestic oil mills was about 2.36 million tons (2.3 million tons in the previous week and 2.24 million tons in the same period last year), with an operating rate of about 66% (65% in the previous week and 64% in the same period last year). Next week (September 13 - 19), the soybean crushing volume in oil mills is expected to be about 2.4 million tons (2.05 million tons in the same period last year), with an operating rate of 67% (58% in the same period last year) [5] Group 5: Summary of Domestic Soybean No.1 Spot Situation - The soybean prices were stable and weak. The purchase prices of clean soybeans in some northeastern and inland areas remained the same as the previous week, and the sales prices of edible soybeans in the sales areas were mostly the same as the previous week, with a partial decline of 20 yuan/ton [6] - The northeastern production area is waiting for the new soybeans to be listed. New soybeans in some areas of Heilongjiang have been harvested sporadically, but the scale has not been formed yet. The harvest time of new soybeans will be affected by the weather in the production area [6] - The state reserve soybean auction continues, but the market participation is low. The participation in the one-way auction of state reserve soybeans has decreased, and all parties are waiting for the new soybeans to be listed [6] - The trading in the sales areas is slow, waiting for the new soybeans. Many dealers said that after the back-to-school season, the replenishment of the downstream market was almost completed. With the upcoming listing of new soybeans in the northeast, the overall trading this week was normal and slow [6]
豆粕：震荡，关注中美经贸会谈，豆一：震荡，关注技术面、市场情绪
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo·2025-09-14 11:17