重视资源品普涨行情下煤炭低位补涨机会

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the coal industry [10]. Core Insights - Since the third quarter, the coal sector has seen a cumulative decline of 9% year-to-date, with only a 4% increase since Q3 2025. The report suggests focusing on the coal sector for potential recovery due to favorable demand policies and supply constraints [2][7]. - The report highlights three main advantages for the coal sector: (1) Demand stimulus policies combined with supply control make prices more likely to rise; (2) The coal sector has lower valuations and greater elasticity compared to other cyclical resources; (3) Marginal catalysts such as price stabilization and potential policy support could drive further price increases [2][7]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - The coal index (Yangtze) increased by 0.31% this week, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 1.07 percentage points. The thermal coal market price as of September 12 was 680 CNY/ton, with a weekly increase of 1 CNY/ton [6][20]. - The report notes that the coal sector's performance has been weaker compared to other cyclical resource sectors, which have seen significant gains [7][20]. Supply and Demand Analysis - The report indicates that despite a decrease in daily coal consumption, the upcoming "golden September and silver October" period is expected to support demand, particularly for non-electric uses. Supply remains constrained due to production controls [21]. - For coking coal, the price remained stable at 1540 CNY/ton, with expectations of limited price declines due to ongoing demand from the steel sector [21]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends several stocks based on their potential for recovery: 1. High elasticity stocks: Yanzhou Coal Mining, Jinneng Holding, Huayang Co., Lu'an Environmental Energy, Pingmei Shenma Energy, and Huaibei Mining. 2. Low valuation growth: Electric Power Investment. 3. Long-term stable profit leaders: China Coal Energy and China Shenhua Energy [8]. Price Trends - Historical data shows that from 2014 to 2024, the prices of both thermal and coking coal typically rise in September, indicating a seasonal trend that could support future price increases [16]. Company Performance - The report lists the top-performing coal companies this week, including Antai Group (8.11%) and Baotailong (5.96%), while noting declines in companies like Anyuan Coal Industry (-5.33%) and Shanxi Coal and Electricity (-1.42%) [31][34].