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宏观与大类资产周报:中美谈判的预期回摆-20250914
CMS·2025-09-14 11:34

Domestic Economic Outlook - August exports fell short of expectations, indicating a potential slowdown in China's export growth, with a trade surplus of $98.24 billion, up 11.8% year-on-year[19] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) in August showed a year-on-year decline of 2.9%, a narrowing from the previous month's 3.6%[20] U.S. Economic Indicators - Following the release of non-farm employment, PPI, and CPI data, market expectations for rapid interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve have increased, with initial jobless claims rising significantly in the week of September 14[17] - The U.S. Supreme Court is set to hear oral arguments on Trump's tariff case in November, which may accelerate tariff adjustments[17] Currency and Trade Relations - The upcoming U.S.-China talks from September 14-17 may influence the RMB exchange rate; if tariffs are reduced, the RMB could strengthen past the 7 mark[18] - A weak dollar trading environment has temporarily ended, with the U.S. significantly revising down employment data, reinforcing the case for Fed rate cuts[18] Market Performance - The A-share market showed a weekly increase of 1.52%, while the Hang Seng Index rose by 3.82%[45] - Gold prices have been fluctuating upwards, and international crude oil prices have rebounded[43] Monetary Policy and Liquidity - The overall liquidity shifted from tight to loose, with a net injection of 196.1 billion yuan through reverse repos this week[24] - The weighted issuance rate of interbank certificates of deposit rose to 1.6264%, reflecting a slight increase from the previous week[27]