美联储降息预期主导市场，国内铜价重上8万大关

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "stronger than market" rating for the non-ferrous metal industry [8] Core Views - The expectation of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve is driving market sentiment, leading to a resurgence in domestic copper prices above 80,000 [5] - The gold market is experiencing a surge due to increased safe-haven buying driven by rising interest rate cut expectations, with prices continuing to rise [4] - The industrial metals sector is supported by a tight supply situation, particularly for copper, while aluminum prices are expected to remain stable due to strong demand from the new energy sector [5][18] Summary by Sections Precious Metals - The expectation of interest rate cuts has intensified safe-haven buying, resulting in continued increases in gold prices. The U.S. non-farm payroll report indicates a weakening labor market, raising concerns about further deterioration [4][13] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) for August showed a surprising decline of 0.1% month-on-month, with the annual inflation rate dropping to 2.6%, below the expected 3.3% [4][13] - Key stocks to watch include Zhongjin, Zijin, and Chaijin in A-shares, and Lingbao, WanGuo Gold Group, and China National Gold International in H-shares [4][13] Industrial Metals - The copper market is experiencing a tight supply situation, with domestic copper prices rising above 80,000. The expectation of interest rate cuts is expected to boost investment and consumption, further supporting copper prices [5][14] - Aluminum prices are expected to remain stable due to a combination of supply constraints and strong demand from the new energy sector [5][18] - Key stocks to focus on include Jiangxi Copper H, Tongling Nonferrous, and Huayou Cobalt in A-shares, and Minmetals and China Nonferrous in H-shares [5][18] New Energy Metals - Lithium carbonate prices have declined slightly, but downstream demand remains strong, particularly in the electric vehicle and energy storage sectors [19] - The supply side is stable, with production expected to increase slightly, while demand is showing signs of growth as the traditional peak season approaches [19] - Key stocks to consider include Zhongjin Lingnan and Canggu Lithium [19] Other Minor Metals - Tungsten prices are expected to remain strong due to tight supply and low social inventory, with prices potentially reaching 300,000 per ton [20][24] - Molybdenum prices are experiencing slight adjustments due to increased profit-taking, but high-quality supply remains tight [23][24] - Key stocks to watch include Jiajin International and Xiamen Tungsten in tungsten, and Jinchuan Group and Guocheng Mining in molybdenum [20][23]