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上海新房需求释放明显,北京、深圳二手房成交回升
Xiangcai Securities·2025-09-14 11:54

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained as "Buy" [1] Core Insights - The report observes a significant release of new housing demand in Shanghai, with a rebound in second-hand housing transactions in Beijing and Shenzhen [3][4] - In Beijing, the average daily transaction of second-hand residential properties reached 469 units, a year-on-year increase of 8.2%, while new housing transactions averaged 85 units, up 6.4% year-on-year [3] - In Shanghai, second-hand housing transactions averaged 674 units, a 26% year-on-year increase, and new housing transactions averaged 335 units, an 18% year-on-year increase [4] - In Shenzhen, second-hand housing transactions averaged 167 units, a 26% year-on-year increase, while new housing transactions averaged 52 units, down 4% year-on-year [4] Summary by Sections Policy Effects - The report highlights the positive impact of policy changes in major cities, particularly the cancellation of purchase restrictions in Shanghai, which significantly boosted new housing transactions [6] - The report notes that the recent policy adjustments in Beijing and Shenzhen have also led to a recovery in second-hand housing transactions, providing short-term support for demand [6] Transaction Data - New housing transaction area in 30 major cities increased by 8.3% year-on-year for the week of September 7-13, with a cumulative year-on-year decline of 5.9% from January to September [5] - The report indicates that first-tier, second-tier, and third-tier cities saw respective year-on-year increases in new housing transaction area of 13%, 13.8%, and a decline of 7.6% for the week [5] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on leading real estate companies with strong land acquisition capabilities and reasonable land reserves, such as Poly Developments [6] - It also recommends paying attention to leading intermediary institutions that may benefit from an increase in second-hand housing transactions, such as I Love My Home, as policy relaxation expectations rise [6]