策略周报：9月是快牛和慢牛的分水岭-20250914

Group 1 - The core conclusion indicates that there is a small divergence among investors regarding the bull market, but a significant divergence remains between slow and fast bull markets. The US stock market exemplifies a slow bull market, with a one-year increase of over 40% being rare, and subsequent annual increases tend to decline significantly after reaching this level. The Shanghai Composite Index has also shown signs of a slow bull market from 2016 to 2021, with significant fluctuations occurring after reaching a rolling annual increase of 30% [3][8][9] - If the current bull market is a slow bull, based on historical patterns from 2016-2021 for the Shanghai Composite Index and the S&P 500 since 1995, it is unlikely to see significant increases in the index over the next six months. Conversely, if it is a fast bull market, the fluctuations and corrections are typically short-lived, often lasting 1-2 months, with the potential for a continuous rise after October [3][4][14] - The current bull market is catalyzed by policies, suggesting a high probability of evolving into a large-scale bull market. The resonance between market policies and micro liquidity tends to facilitate significant bull markets [4][18][20] Group 2 - Historical evidence shows that when the scale of equity financing is lower than the cash dividends of listed companies, larger bull markets tend to occur. This situation was observed in 1995, 2005, and 2013, leading to substantial bull markets in the following years. Currently, the equity financing scale is below dividends, indicating a potential for a significant bull market in the next two years [17][18] - The report suggests that the market is likely to experience a main upward trend after a narrow fluctuation in September, with increased policy expectations in the second half of the year. The structural profitability effect in the market has been evident for nearly a year, and it is anticipated that resident funds will gradually increase, indicating that the market has likely entered a main upward wave [20][22] - The report highlights that the configuration of financial sectors should shift from banks to non-banking financials, as the latter is expected to show greater performance elasticity in the context of a rising bull market. Additionally, sectors such as non-ferrous metals and power equipment are projected to perform well, especially if economic conditions improve or policy support is provided [27][28]