氧化铝供应继续回升，进口窗口打开

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Alumina: Oscillating [4] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Alumina supply continues to rise, and the import window has opened. Domestic alumina supply is increasing due to复产 and new - capacity releases, leading to a growing supply surplus. The futures price is expected to show an oscillating and weakening trend. It is recommended to adopt a strategy of short - selling on rallies [1][14] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Alumina Industry Chain Weekly Overview - Raw Materials: Domestic ore prices remained stable last week. In the north, strict inspections in Henan and policy - related impacts in Shanxi limited ore production. Frequent rainfall also reduced ore output. Imported ore prices were stable, and the shipping volume is expected to increase in October. Newly - arrived ore was 3.406 million tons this period, including 2.272 million tons from Guinea and 1.055 million tons from Australia. The shipping cost from Guinea to China dropped to $23.5 per ton [1][11] - Alumina: The spot price of alumina declined last week. The import window opened due to large - scale tenders from downstream aluminum plants, and market sentiment was bearish. The theoretical import profit was 44 yuan per ton. The national alumina production capacity in operation increased by 800,000 tons to 97.55 million tons, with an operating rate of 85.1% [2][12] - Demand: Domestically, the operating capacity of Yunnan Honghe New Materials Co., Ltd. increased by 20,000 tons. The domestic electrolytic aluminum operating capacity increased by 20,000 tons to 44.163 million tons. Overseas demand remained unchanged [13] - Inventory: As of September 11, the national alumina inventory increased by 71,000 tons to 3.68 million tons. The inventory of electrolytic aluminum enterprises continued to rise, but the increase narrowed. Alumina enterprise inventory remained low, and port inventory increased significantly [13] - Warehouse Receipts: The registered warehouse receipts of alumina on the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased by 32,435 tons to 138,692 tons. The futures price is expected to be weak and oscillating, and it is recommended to short - sell on rallies [14] 3.2 Weekly Summary of Key Events in the Industry Chain - Import Cost: As of September 11, the Australian alumina quotation was about $336 per ton, down $18.5 from the previous week. The theoretical import profit was 44 yuan per ton [15] - Transaction in Western Australia: On September 11, 30,000 tons of alumina were traded in Western Australia at an FOB price of $340 per ton, down $10 from the previous deal [15] - Ore Use in Shanxi: Due to poor domestic ore acquisition in Shanxi, some alumina enterprises increased the use of imported ore. One alumina plant restored its operating capacity from 1 million tons to 1.4 million tons [15] 3.3 Monitoring of Key Data in the Upstream and Downstream of the Industry Chain - Raw Materials and Cost: The section includes data on domestic and imported bauxite prices, domestic bauxite port inventory, shipping volume from major bauxite - importing countries, sea - floating inventory, domestic caustic soda and thermal coal prices, and alumina production costs in various provinces [16][25][27] - Alumina Price and Supply - Demand Balance: It covers domestic and imported alumina prices, domestic electrolytic aluminum spot prices, the futures price ratio of electrolytic aluminum to alumina on the Shanghai Futures Exchange, and the weekly supply - demand balance of domestic alumina [32][36][39] - Alumina Inventory and Warehouse Receipts: This part contains data on electrolytic aluminum plant and alumina plant alumina inventories, domestic alumina yard/terminal/in - transit inventory, port inventory, total social inventory, and the quantity of warehouse receipts and open interest of alumina on the Shanghai Futures Exchange [42][45][48]