煤炭开采行业周报：港口煤价止跌趋稳，节前下游补库与大秦线检修将对煤价形成支撑-20250914

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the coal mining industry [2] Core Viewpoints - The coal prices at ports have stabilized after a decline, supported by downstream inventory replenishment before the holiday and maintenance on the Daqin line [2][72] - The coal mining industry is experiencing a recovery in supply and demand post significant events, with port inventories decreasing and prices gradually stabilizing [72] - The report highlights the investment value of coal companies due to their strong cash flow and high dividend yields, suggesting a focus on low-priced coal stocks [7] Summary by Sections 1. Thermal Coal - Port coal prices have stabilized, with prices in Shanxi, Inner Mongolia, and Shaanxi increasing by 5.00, 6.00, and 11.00 CNY/ton respectively [13][14] - As of September 10, the capacity utilization rate in the Sanxi region increased by 1.63 percentage points, indicating a return to normal production levels [13][72] - The average daily shipment volume on the Daqin line decreased by 17,500 tons week-on-week, with maintenance scheduled to begin on October 7 for 20 days [13][72] - Coastal and inland power plants' daily coal consumption showed a mixed trend, with coastal consumption decreasing by 100,000 tons and inland consumption increasing by 94,000 tons [13][72] - As of September 10, coal inventories at coastal and inland power plants reached 121.695 million tons, up 4.844 million tons year-on-year [13][72] 2. Coking Coal - The capacity utilization rate for sample coal mines increased by 4.08 percentage points to 85.3% due to the resumption of production after significant events [5][41] - The average daily crossing volume at the Ganqimaodu port remained high, with an increase of 293 vehicles week-on-week [5][41] - The price of main coking coal at the port remained stable at 1,540 CNY/ton as of September 12 [5][42] 3. Coke - Most coking enterprises remain profitable, and the supply has increased following the lifting of production restrictions [6][51] - The average profit per ton of coke decreased to approximately 35 CNY/ton, down 29 CNY/ton week-on-week [56] - The production rate of independent coking plants increased to 75.6%, indicating a recovery in production [58] 4. Anthracite - The price of anthracite coal has decreased due to limited production and low demand from chemical enterprises [68] - As of September 12, the price of small block anthracite was 880 CNY/ton, down 20 CNY/ton week-on-week [68] 5. Key Companies and Profit Forecasts - The report emphasizes the investment potential in companies like China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal, and Yanzhou Coal, with recommendations for buying based on their strong earnings forecasts [8]