美国通胀如期反弹，金价再创新高

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Gold: Volatile [1] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The price of gold continued to rise and hit a new high, driven by geopolitical risks and the strengthening expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut. The US inflation rebounded as expected, and the employment market continued to weaken. The divergence between hawks and doves at the upcoming Fed interest rate meeting is expected to increase. After the price of gold reached a record high, the game between bulls and bears intensified, and market volatility increased. Attention should be paid to the short - term correction risk [2][3][4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Gold High - Frequency Data Weekly Changes - The domestic basis (spot - futures) was - 3.88 yuan/gram, with a weekly change rate of - 1.8%. The domestic - foreign futures price difference (domestic - foreign) was - 8.62 yuan/gram, with a weekly change rate of - 56.2%. The Shanghai Futures Exchange gold inventory increased by 22.2% to 52,950 kilograms, while the COMEX gold inventory decreased by 0.11% to 38,914,491 ounces. The SPDR ETF holding volume decreased by 0.73% to 974.80 tons, and the CFTC gold speculative net long position decreased by 1.4% to 166,417 lots. The US Treasury yield decreased by 1.0% to 4.06%, and the US 10 - year real interest rate decreased by 4.3% to 1.69% [11] 3.2 Financial Market - Related Data Tracking 3.2.1 US Financial Market - The US overnight secured financing rate was 4.41%. Oil prices rose 3.8%, and the US inflation expectation was 2.37%. The US dollar index fell 0.22% to 97.55, the 10 - year US Treasury yield was 4.06%, the S&P 500 index rose 1.59%, and the VIX index dropped to 14.76. The real interest rate dropped to 1.69%, and the gold price rose 1.6% [17][19][21] 3.2.2 Global Financial Markets - Stocks, Bonds, Currencies, and Commodities - Developed country stock markets mostly rose, with the S&P 500 rising 1.59%. Developing country stock markets also mostly rose, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising 1.52%. US Treasury bonds fell slightly, German bonds rose, and the US - Germany spread was 1.35%. The UK Treasury bond yield was 4.67%, and the Japanese bond yield was 1.59%. The euro appreciated 0.14%, the pound sterling appreciated 0.34%, the yen depreciated 0.17%, and the Swiss franc appreciated 0.18%. Non - US currencies mostly appreciated [22][26][28] 3.3 Gold Trading - Level Data Tracking - The gold speculative net long position slightly decreased to 166,000 lots, and the SPDR Gold ETF holding volume dropped to 974 tons. The RMB showed a volatile trend, and Shanghai gold remained at a discount. Gold and silver prices rose, and the gold - silver ratio dropped to 86.3 [32][35] 3.4 Weekly Economic Calendar - Monday: China's August social retail sales and industrial added value; Japan's market closed. Tuesday: US August retail sales and September NAHB housing index. Wednesday: US August new housing starts and building permits; Bank of Canada interest rate meeting decision. Thursday: Fed and Bank of England September interest rate meetings. Friday: Bank of Japan September interest rate meeting [36]