社会服务行业2025H1业绩综述：盈利能力改善，结构性机会涌现

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the consumer services sector [11] Core Insights - In H1 2025, the overall industry revenue increased by 1.0% year-on-year, indicating a stable upward trend, while the overall non-recurring net profit decreased by 7.1% year-on-year. However, in Q2 2025, the non-recurring net profit increased by 15% year-on-year, showing a recovery in profitability [2][19] - Structural opportunities are emerging across various segments, with notable improvements in profitability for human resources and hotel sectors [2][19] Revenue Overview - In H1 2025, the revenue growth was driven by a price-volume trade-off, with human resources, outbound tourism, education, dining, and scenic spots showing year-on-year increases of 10.7%, 8.6%, 3.4%, 3.3%, and 0.5% respectively. The duty-free sector is gradually recovering from a weak period, with a year-on-year decline of 10.1% [20][19] - The hotel industry faced pressure, with a year-on-year decline of 2.7% in performance [20] Profitability Analysis - The overall non-recurring net profit for the industry in H1 2025 decreased by 7.1%, but improved by 15% in Q2 2025. The human resources and hotel sectors saw increases of 6.4% and 1.0% respectively in H1 2025 [24][19] - The duty-free, dining, education, and scenic sectors experienced significant declines in non-recurring net profit, primarily due to weak consumer recovery in Q1 [24][19] Cash Flow Insights - The overall operating cash flow net amount decreased by 15.72% year-on-year in H1 2025, with the dining sector showing a positive growth of 28.89% [31][19] - By Q2 2025, the operating net cash flow for outbound tourism and education sectors turned positive, with increases of 38.51% and 18.02% respectively [31][19] Sector-Specific Highlights - Tea Beverage: The segment continues to thrive, with significant revenue and profit growth driven by delivery services and seasonal demand. Notable brands like Gu Ming are recommended for their robust growth potential [7][50] - Dining: The sector is recovering, but performance among listed companies varies. Brands with strong value propositions and rapid expansion are highlighted for investment [7][52] - Education: Quality institutions are experiencing steady growth, with a focus on AI applications enhancing revenue and profit margins. Recommended companies include Xue Da Education and Action Education [8][50] - Human Resources: The demand is structurally improving, with AI technology enhancing efficiency and reducing reliance on manual labor. Recommended companies include Keri International and Beijing Human Resources [8][50] - Scenic Spots: The tourism sector is witnessing growth in visitor numbers, supported by favorable policies. Recommended companies include Tianmu Lake and Songcheng Performance [8][50] - Hotels: The sector is under pressure, but major hotel groups are achieving cost reductions and efficiency improvements. Recommended companies include Shoulu Hotel and Jinjiang Hotel [9][50] - Duty-Free: The decline in offshore duty-free sales is narrowing, with positive trends in port stores. Recommended company is China Duty Free [9][50]