海外经济跟踪周报20250914：静候降息，权益普涨-20250914

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report The report analyzes the overseas market trends from September 8 to 12, 2025, including the performance of stocks, foreign exchange, bonds, and commodities. It also covers overseas central bank dynamics, Trump policy updates, and high - frequency tracking of the overseas economic fundamentals, and reminds of important events in the coming week. Factors such as economic data, geopolitical situations, and central bank policies have significant impacts on market trends [3]. Summary by Directory 1. Overseas Market One - Week Review - Equities: Overseas equities generally rose this week. US stocks' three major indices all closed higher, with the Nasdaq rising for 5 consecutive days. European and Asian major indices also increased due to factors like the increased probability of 3 interest rate cuts within the year. For example, the S&P 500, Dow, and Nasdaq rose 1.59%, 0.95%, and 2.03% respectively; the German DAX and London FTSE 100 rose 0.43% and 0.82%; the Nikkei 225 and South Korean Composite Index rose 4.07% and 5.94% [3][12]. - Foreign Exchange: The US dollar weakened this week. The dollar index fell 0.12%. The euro and yen against the dollar changed by +0.15% and - 0.17% respectively, and the RMB against the dollar rose slightly by 0.06% [12]. - Interest Rates: The 10Y US Treasury yield declined, while the short - end rose. The 2Y US Treasury rose 5bp, and the 10Y US Treasury fell 4bp. The decline was due to factors consolidating the interest rate cut expectation, and the rise was affected by the Middle - East situation and inflation expectations [13]. - Commodities: Gold, crude oil, and copper prices all rose. COMEX gold and silver rose 1.26% and 2.81%; WTI crude oil and copper rose 1.02% and 2.54% [13]. 2. Overseas Policy and Key News 2.1 Overseas Central Bank Dynamics - The market's expectation of a 9 - month interest rate cut by the Fed reached 100%. The core CPI inflation in the US in August met expectations. The market's expectation of a 25bp cut in September was 93.4% (up from 89.0% a week ago), and the probability of a 50bp cut was 6.6% (down from 11.0% a week ago). The probability of a total of 75bp cuts throughout 2025 was 74% (up from 65% a week ago) [4][30][31]. - The Fed's FOMC meeting in September may see increased internal differences, and the new dot - plot may adjust the interest rate cut path significantly and become more decentralized [30]. 2.2 Trump Policy Tracking - Trade and Tariffs: The Supreme Court will hold an oral debate on the legality of Trump's global tariff policy in the first week of November. China and the US will hold talks from September 14 - 17 in Spain, discussing issues like US unilateral tariffs and TikTok. China's Ministry of Commerce launched anti - dumping and anti - discrimination investigations on US - imported products. Trump proposed that the EU impose a 100% tariff on Russia's energy buyers (India and China) [33]. - Fed - related: Milan may participate in the September FOMC vote. There is a new candidate for the Fed chair, Rick Rieder. The case of Fed governor Cook may have a turn, with evidence to refute the mortgage fraud accusation [33][34]. 3. Overseas Economic Fundamental High - Frequency Tracking 3.1 Overall Economic Outlook - The Polymarket website's bet on a US economic recession in 2025 was 11% (up from 9% a week ago). Bloomberg's consensus forecast for US economic growth in 2025 was revised up to 1.65%, and for the eurozone, it was 1.2% [6][40]. - The New York Fed's Nowcast model slightly lowered the Q3 US real GDP growth forecast to 2.08%, while the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow model raised it to 3.09% [42]. 3.2 Employment - The number of unemployment benefit claimants exceeded expectations, mainly due to the impact in Texas. The initial jobless claims rose to 263,000, with Texas contributing 57%. The number of continuous unemployment benefit claimants remained at 1.939 million [47]. 3.3 Demand - US retail sales were stable, but airport security checks and railway transportation decreased significantly. The red - book retail sales growth rate was 6.6%. Airport security checks fell to 15.787 million, and railway transportation was 468,000 vehicles, with a year - on - year growth rate of - 9.44%. The real - estate market activity picked up, with mortgage rates falling and application indices rising [55]. 3.4 Production - US crude steel production rebounded, and the refinery's capacity utilization rate was stable. The crude steel production in the week ending September 5 was 1.795 million short tons, and the refinery's capacity utilization rate was 94.9% [59]. 3.5 Shipping - International freight rates showed mixed trends. The Drewry World Container Freight Index (WCI) fell 2.9%, while the Baltic Dry Index, Capesize Freight Index, and Panamax Freight Index rose 7.4%, 11.3%, and 8.3% respectively. Chinese port export container prices generally fell, with some routes rising [61][63]. 3.6 Prices - US retail gasoline prices fell 0.69% this week. The 1 - year inflation swap rate was 3.335% (up 0.03 percentage points), and the 2 - year inflation swap rate was 2.906% (down 0.02 percentage points) [65]. 3.7 Financial Conditions - US financial pressure declined. The OFR US Financial Stress Index was - 1.136 (down 0.105 from the previous week), and the CCC high - yield bond credit spread was 8.00% (down from 8.06% a week ago) [67]. 4. Next Week's Overseas Important Event Reminder - Multiple overseas central banks, including the Fed, the Bank of Japan, the Bank of England, and the Bank of Canada, will announce interest rate decisions. Attention should also be paid to US retail data and import price indices. Diplomatic events include China - US trade talks from September 14 - 17 and Trump's state visit to the UK from September 17 - 19 [72].