国泰君安期货能源化工石油沥青周度报告-20250914

Report Information - Report Title: Petroleum Asphalt Weekly Report [1] - Author: Wang Hanxi from Guotai Junan Futures Research Institute [1] - Date: September 14, 2025 [1] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views - The asphalt market is expected to continue its narrow - range oscillation. The short - term valuation of asphalt may remain neutral, and attention should be paid to the trading situation in Shandong [4]. - The "Short BU, Long SC" strategy should be continued [4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Overview - Supply: The capacity utilization rate of 77 domestic heavy - traffic asphalt enterprises was 34.9%, a 6.8% week - on - week increase. The resumption of production at Hebei Xinhai and Ningbo Keyuan, along with stable production at major refineries, led to this increase. The weekly average comprehensive profit of asphalt production was - 491.7 yuan/ton, a 122.3 yuan/ton week - on - week increase [4]. - Demand: From September 3 - 9, 2025, the total shipment volume of 54 domestic asphalt enterprises was 39.7 tons, a 3.6% week - on - week decrease. Shipments decreased significantly in the Northeast and Shandong regions. In the Northeast, the increase in the price of low - sulfur asphalt reduced downstream purchasing enthusiasm, while in Shandong, the suspension of surrounding projects led to a decline in terminal demand [4]. - Valuation: During the week, BU followed the weak trend of crude oil, and the spot price remained stable. The average weekly price of domestic asphalt was 3637 yuan/ton, a 9 yuan/ton decrease from the previous period. The price fluctuation range was 3633 - 3647 yuan/ton, showing a narrowing trend [4]. 3.2 Price & Spread - Cost Structure: The cost of asphalt is affected by factors such as Brent, WTI, imported diluted asphalt, and Ma Rui crude oil. Different types of crude oil have different asphalt yields, with Ma Rui crude oil having a yield of 55% - 60% [7]. - Futures - Disk Price and Trading Positions: Relevant data shows the trends of trading positions and the flow of Venezuelan Ma Rui crude oil [9][10]. - Spot - Heavy - Traffic Asphalt and Ma Rui Crude Oil: The report presents the price trends of domestic heavy - traffic asphalt in different regions and the production profit margin in Shandong [13]. - Spread - Basis and Monthly Spread: The report shows the historical trends of basis and monthly spreads in different regions [17]. 3.3 Fundamental Data - Demand: Asphalt demand is mainly from the road market (including highway construction and maintenance), waterproof market, ship - fuel market, coking market, and export market. Seasonal factors have a limited impact. From September 3 - 9, 2025, the total shipment volume of 54 domestic asphalt enterprises decreased by 3.6% week - on - week. The capacity utilization rate of 69 domestic modified asphalt enterprises was 18.5%, a 2.6% week - on - week increase [22][26]. - Supply: - Production, Maintenance, and Raw Materials: From September 5 - 11, 2025, the weekly total production of domestic asphalt was 59.9 tons, a 1.2% week - on - week decrease and a 41.9% year - on - year increase. As of September 11, 2025, the inventory of 54 asphalt sample refineries was 72.8 tons, a 1.9% decrease from September 8, and the social inventory of asphalt was 165.3 tons, a 1.4% decrease from September 8 [30]. - Start - up: The report shows the weekly start - up rates of 77 major asphalt refineries in different regions [33]. - Inventory: The report presents the weekly inventory rates of asphalt refineries in different regions and the overall market [49].