信用策略周报20250914：二永，跌出来的价值-20250914

Group 1 - The report highlights that the second batch of Sci-Tech Innovation Bonds ETF has started fundraising, with expectations of raising approximately 400+ billion yuan, indicating strong market interest [2][21][23] - The overall bond market has shown a "V" shaped trend, with credit bonds adjusting alongside interest rate bonds, leading to mixed changes in credit spreads [1][7][8] - The report notes that the selling pressure from funds on the second-tier perpetual bonds (二永) has reached its highest level this year, indicating a significant market reaction [1][8] Group 2 - The second batch of 14 Sci-Tech Innovation Bonds ETFs is expected to replicate the growth seen in the first batch, with potential for substantial scale growth post-listing [2][26] - The report suggests that the valuation of the component bonds has shown a significant increase, with the spread between component and non-component bonds widening to around 9-10 basis points [27][28] - It is noted that over two-thirds of the short-term component bonds are currently valued below the yield of one-year time deposits, indicating limited further upside potential for these bonds [27][28] Group 3 - The report maintains a cautious outlook on the bond market, recommending a focus on short-term coupon strategies while avoiding significant exposure to credit risk [3][37] - It emphasizes that the 2-4 year perpetual bonds have become more attractive due to steepening yield curves, presenting trading opportunities [3][37] - The report advises caution regarding long-term credit investments, as the potential for profit from trading is not clearly evident [3][39]