LPG周报：旺季备货已至，LPG相对走强-20250914

Report Title - "LPG Weekly Report: Peak Season Stockpiling Arrives, LPG Strengthens Relatively" [1] Report Date - September 14, 2025 [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - LPG has shown strong recent performance, with the international market entering the peak - season stockpiling phase, and its price is relatively firm compared to crude oil [5]. - OPEC+ is further increasing crude oil production. Although geopolitical disturbances between the US and Venezuela, the US and Iran, and the US and Russia may offset the increase to some extent, it does not change the fact that LPG supply remains abundant [5]. - In the demand side, the peak season of the blending market is coming to an end, and the operating rate is difficult to maintain at a high level, so the chemical demand may weaken. However, the profit of PDH has been significantly repaired, which may support the subsequent operating rate [5]. - Overall, LPG supply is very abundant. The CP price is relatively strong in the short - term due to peak - season stockpiling, but will follow the oil price in the long - term. With high supply and the expectation that demand is unlikely to strengthen beyond expectations, the upside potential of LPG is limited, and a bearish view is maintained in the long - term [5]. Key Strategy Recommendation - Futures strategy: Try shorting at high prices [6] Summary by Directory PART 01: LPG Market Review - Market Trend: The domestic LPG market showed a volatile trend. In the civil gas market, the supply of domestic gas increased slightly, with limited negative impact on the market. In Shandong, prices declined due to the concentrated arrival of imported gas. The combustion demand was still weak, and downstream customers were cautious about high prices while digesting inventory, leading to price drops in some enterprises in Central China. In other regions, the supply - demand situation was good, and prices rose slightly. In the olefin C4 market, despite the increase in international crude oil prices, the poor terminal oil product demand led to a decline in component raw material prices. Downstream device profits continued to be in the red, and with decreased chemical demand and increased supply, the relaxed supply - demand situation pressured the market [5]. - CP Price: The expected average price of propane CP is $545 per ton, up $14 per ton from the previous period, a month - on - month increase of 2.64%. The expected average price of butane CP is $525 per ton, up $14 per ton from the previous period, a month - on - month increase of 2.74% [5]. PART 02: LPG Fundamental Analysis - Supply - Domestic: Data on the operating rate of major refineries' atmospheric and vacuum distillation units, Shandong local refineries' atmospheric and vacuum distillation units, comprehensive refining profit of major refineries, and domestic LPG production volume are presented, but specific current - period data analysis is not provided [11]. - Supply - Import: Data on LPG arrival volume in China, import trade profit margin in South China, monthly total import volume in China, import volume from different countries, and shipping freight rates from the Arabian Gulf region and the US Gulf Coast to the Far East are presented, but specific current - period data analysis is not provided [14][15][17][19] - Inventory: Data on LPG port inventory in China, refinery storage capacity ratio in China, port storage capacity ratio in China, factory - level inventory in China, and sales - to - production ratios in South China, East China, and Shandong are presented, but specific current - period data analysis is not provided [22][24] - Demand - PDH: Data on the operating rate of PDH plants in China, production profit margin of PDH in China, production profit margin of MTBE's isomerization etherification in Shandong, capacity utilization rate of MTBE export factories in China, capacity utilization rate of alkylated oil in China, and production profit margin of alkylated oil in Shandong are presented, but specific current - period data analysis is not provided [27][29][31] PART 03: LPG - Related Price Data - Import Cost: Data on CP contract prices of propane and butane, CP crude oil price trends, and spot prices of propane (frozen cargo) in South China are presented, but specific current - period data analysis is not provided [36] - Spot: Data on ex - factory prices of civil LPG from Guangzhou Petrochemical, Shanghai Gaoqiao, and Jinan Refinery are presented, but specific current - period data analysis is not provided [39][40] PART 04: LPG Other Data - LPG Spread: Data on the basis of the LPG main contract and the spread between the first - and second - month contracts are presented, but specific current - period data analysis is not provided [45] - Registered Warehouse Receipts: Data on the registered warehouse receipts of major LPG delivery warehouses are presented, but specific current - period data analysis is not provided [47]