Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply - demand side shows marginal improvement, but the pressure of high supply and low downstream profits restricts the upside space. The market is expected to fluctuate at the bottom this week [5] - The strategy suggests a bottom - oscillating trend for single - side trading, waiting and seeing for arbitrage, and selling straddle combinations on rallies for options [6] Group 3: Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategy - Fundamentals: Supply shows differentiation, with silicon - iron production slightly decreasing and silicon - manganese production slightly increasing this week. The previous continuous resumption trend has shifted to high - level stable operation. Demand for raw materials remains high as the pig - iron output of 247 steel mills rebounds significantly after the parade. However, the recovery of steel demand in the second week of September is not obvious, and the risk of production cuts affecting raw - material demand still exists due to low steel profits. The cost side supports silicon - manganese, with a slight increase in electricity prices in major production areas and stable manganese - ore port inventories, which are significantly lower than the same period in previous years [5] - Market sentiment: Rumors of energy - consumption control in some industrial - silicon production areas have disturbed the ferro - alloy supply side, but the high - supply problem still exists, so one should not be overly optimistic about the rebound height [5] - Strategy: Single - side trading is expected to oscillate at the bottom; arbitrage requires waiting and seeing; options suggest selling straddle combinations on rallies [6] 2. Core Logic Analysis - Demand: The daily average pig - iron output of 247 sample steel mills is 2.4055 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.1171 million tons. The weekly demand for silicon - iron in five major steel types (about 70% of the total demand) is 19,700 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 300 tons; the weekly demand for silicon - manganese in five major steel types (70%) is 122,300 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1,400 tons [11] - Supply: The sample opening rate of 136 independent silicon - iron enterprises is 36.84%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.5%; the national silicon - iron output (weekly supply) is 113,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2,000 tons. The sample opening rate of 187 independent silicon - manganese enterprises is 47.38%, a week - on - week increase of 0.93%; the national silicon - manganese output (99% of weekly supply) is 214,100 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1,300 tons [12] - Inventory: As of the week of September 12, the national inventory of 60 independent silicon - iron enterprises is 69,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 3,400 tons; the national inventory of 63 independent silicon - manganese enterprises (accounting for 79.77% of national production capacity) is 167,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 6,000 tons [13] 3. Weekly Data Tracking - Spot price - basis: There are price and basis trend charts for Inner Mongolia silicon - manganese FeMn65Si17 and Inner Mongolia silicon - iron 72%FeSi from 2021 - 2025 [18] - Production situation of dual - silicon enterprises: There are charts showing the weekly output and opening rate of domestic silicon - manganese and silicon - iron enterprises from 2021 - 2025 [24] - Steel - mill production situation: There are charts showing the blast - furnace capacity utilization rate, weekly steel output, profitability rate, social steel inventory, and daily pig - iron output of 247 steel mills from 2021 - 2025 [29] - Silicon - manganese cost - profit: On September 11, 2025, the production costs and profits of silicon - manganese in different regions are presented, with all regions showing losses [31] - Silicon - iron cost - profit: On September 11, 2025, the production costs and profits of silicon - iron in different regions are presented, with all regions showing losses [41] - Cost of carbon elements and electricity price: There are price trend charts for Fugu semi - coke small materials, Yulin steam - coal lump coal, Ningxia chemical coke, and regional electricity prices from 2021 - 2025 [48][51] - Bidding prices of double - silicon steel by Hebei representative steel mills: There are price trend charts for silicon - iron and silicon - manganese procurement prices of Hebei Iron and Steel Group from 2020 - 2025 [53] - Monthly output of silicon - manganese and silicon - iron supply: There are charts showing the monthly output and cumulative output of domestic silicon - manganese and silicon - iron from 2021 - 2025 [60][63] - Import and export of manganese ore and silicon - iron: There are charts showing the monthly net import volume of manganese ore and the monthly net export volume of silicon - iron, including the cumulative and year - on - year data [67] - Demand for magnesium metal: There are charts showing the price of Fugu magnesium metal Mg99.9% and the cumulative output of magnesium metal in Yulin, Shaanxi from 2020 - 2025 [69] - Silicon - iron inventory of alloy plants vs. steel mills: There are charts showing the silicon - iron inventory of alloy plants, the regional distribution of alloy - plant silicon - iron inventory, the available days of steel - mill silicon - iron inventory, and its regional distribution from 2021 - 2025 [73] - Manganese - ore inventory of alloy plants, steel mills, and ports: There are charts showing the available days of steel - mill silicon - manganese inventory, its regional distribution, the total manganese - ore inventory at Tianjin Port, and the silicon - manganese inventory of alloy plants from 2021 - 2025 [76]
铁合金期货周报：供需略有改善，底部震荡运行-20250914
Yin He Qi Huo·2025-09-14 14:42