地方债周度跟踪：新增地方债发行提速，26年提前批额度下达-20250914

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The Ministry of Finance has pre - allocated part of the new local government debt quota for 2026, with a theoretical scale of 3.12 trillion yuan. There is no clear evidence that the debt - resolution quota for 2026 will be issued in advance in 2025 [3]. - The issuance and net financing of local bonds in the current period increased significantly on a month - on - month basis, and it is expected that the issuance and net financing of local bonds in the next period will decrease significantly [3]. - The issuance of new local bonds in the current period accelerated. The current cumulative issuance progress is higher than that of the same period in 2024 but lower than that of the same period in 2023 [3]. - The scale of local bonds planned to be issued in September 2025 is 726.5 billion yuan, of which new special bonds are 440.1 billion yuan [3]. - In the current period, 114.4 billion yuan of special new special bonds were issued, 20 billion yuan of special refinancing bonds for replacing hidden debts were issued, and 6.2 billion yuan of special refinancing bonds for repaying existing debts were issued [3]. - In the current period, the spreads between 10Y and 30Y local bonds and treasury bonds widened, and the weekly turnover rate increased month - on - month. Currently, the cost - performance of exploring the spread between local bonds and treasury bonds is not high [3]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 This Period's Local Bond Issuance Volume Increased, and the Weighted Issuance Term Lengthened - The total issuance/net financing of local bonds in the current period (September 8 - 14, 2025) was 301.671 billion yuan/192.779 billion yuan (93.391 billion yuan/36.709 billion yuan in the previous period), and the expected issuance/net financing in the next period (September 15 - 21, 2025) is 188.519 billion yuan/30.945 billion yuan [3]. - The weighted issuance term of local bonds in the current period was 17.84 years, longer than 13.11 years in the previous period [3]. - As of September 12, 2025, the cumulative issuance of new general bonds/new special bonds accounted for 79.4% and 77.0% of the annual quota respectively. Considering the expected issuance in the next period, it will be 82.0% and 79.2%. The cumulative issuance progress in 2024 was 72.2%/67.5% and 77.1%/71.7%, and in 2023 it was 84.6%/80.5% and 85.6%/81.6% [3]. - As of September 12, 2025, 25 regions have disclosed that the scale of local bonds planned to be issued in September 2025 is 726.5 billion yuan in total, including 440.1 billion yuan of new special bonds. In the same period last year, the issuance in the same regions was 943.2 billion yuan and 753.6 billion yuan respectively, and the national issuance in the same period last year was 1284.3 billion yuan and 1027.9 billion yuan respectively [3]. - As of September 12, 2025, the cumulative issuance of special new special bonds was 1098.6 billion yuan (114.4 billion yuan issued in the current period); the cumulative issuance of special refinancing bonds for replacing hidden debts was 1953.4 billion yuan (20 billion yuan issued in the current period), with an issuance progress of 97.7%, and 30 regions including Zhejiang have completed the issuance (Hunan was added in the current period); at the same time, Guizhou issued a special refinancing bond for repaying existing debts with a scale of 6.2 billion yuan in the current period [3]. 3.2 The Spreads between 10Y and 30Y Local Bonds and Treasury Bonds Widened in the Current Period, and the Weekly Turnover Rate Increased Month - on - Month - As of September 12, 2025, the spreads between 10 - year and 30 - year local bonds and treasury bonds were 19.30BP and 17.60BP respectively, widening by 1.90BP and 2.85BP compared with September 5, 2025 (17.40BP and 14.75BP on September 5, 2025), and were at the 51.40% and 69.40% historical quantiles since 2023 respectively [3]. - The weekly turnover rate of local bonds in the current period was 0.78%, up from 0.68% in the previous period on a month - on - month basis. The yields and liquidity of 7 - 10Y local bonds in regions such as Guizhou, Inner Mongolia, and Jilin were better than the national average [3]. - Taking the 10 - year local bond as the observation anchor, since 2018, the upper limit of the spread adjustment may be about 20 - 25BP above the lower limit of the issuance spread, and the lower limit may be near the lower limit of the issuance spread. Currently, the upper limit of the spread between local bonds and treasury bonds may be around 30 - 35BP, and the lower limit may be around 5 - 10BP [3].