橡胶周报：有望走好-20250915

Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Supply - side disturbances are expected to decrease, with decent profits and high tapping enthusiasm. Despite the large - cycle inflection point, 2025 supply is likely to increase. - On the demand side, large - scale infrastructure projects are set to start, which will have a long - term positive impact on heavy - truck demand. Heavy - truck sales are improving, and passenger - car sales remain at a high level. - Inflation and the inflection point of the production - capacity cycle have raised the price floor. Coupled with the fact that August to November is usually a season of relatively strong prices, it is predicted that rubber prices will fluctuate upwards. The operating range of ru is expected to be between 14,000 - 18,000 yuan/ton [4]. Summary by Directory Macroeconomy - The real - estate market continues to decline and awaits stabilization. Since July, domestic policies have been clearly aimed at reducing excessive competition, and a series of policy measures have been introduced, bringing benefits to commodities in terms of both supply and demand (large - scale infrastructure). There is a strong expectation of a Fed rate cut overseas [4]. Supply - The natural - rubber growing areas generally have normal weather conditions. Cup - lump prices have slightly stabilized, but the price difference between latex and cup - lump is weak, indicating that supply is not a major issue. Currently, it is the peak production season globally, with normal weather and occasional short - term rainfall disruptions. Tapping enthusiasm is high, and there are initial concerns about the 2025 production volume. The port inventory of butadiene, the raw material for synthetic rubber, has rapidly rebounded to a high level in recent years. From January to August this year, the import of natural and synthetic rubber (including latex) increased by 19% year - on - year, and the growth rate in August slowed down to 7.8% [4]. Inventory - The dry - rubber inventory in Qingdao has slightly decreased recently, but it is expected that there will still be a large amount of incoming goods, making it difficult to further reduce the inventory. The inventory of synthetic - rubber traders has increased, while the factory inventory is not high. The ru warehouse receipts on the exchange are at a relatively low level and are decreasing marginally, and the nr warehouse receipts were once at an extremely low level. The inventory of full - steel tires for downstream users is lower than in previous years, and considering the market expansion, the inventory of semi - steel tires is also not high [4]. Demand - The upcoming large - scale infrastructure projects will have a long - term positive impact on the demand for heavy trucks. Stimulated by the policy of replacing old vehicles with new ones, heavy - truck sales have improved. In August 2025, the sales volume decreased by 1% month - on - month compared to July but increased by about 35% year - on - year compared to 62,500 units in the same period last year. This is the fifth consecutive monthly increase in the heavy - truck market since April this year. The sales volume of construction machinery rebounded significantly and then declined. Passenger - car sales remain at a historical high but have slightly softened [4]. Strategy - Given the reduced expected supply - side disturbances, decent profits, high tapping enthusiasm, and a low base, it is expected that supply in 2025 is likely to increase. On the demand side, large - scale infrastructure projects are driving up demand, heavy - truck sales are improving, and passenger - car sales remain at a high level. Inflation and the inflection point of the production - capacity cycle have raised the price floor. Coupled with the seasonally strong price period from August to November, it is predicted that rubber prices will fluctuate upwards, with the ru operating range expected to be between 14,000 - 18,000 yuan/ton. Key indicators to observe are the visible inventory and heavy - truck sales [4].