金信期货日刊-20250915

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The prices of coking coal and coke are highly volatile due to the expected "anti - involution" policy, and there are opportunities for a slightly upward trend in the volatile market [2][3]. - The A - share market is expected to continue to fluctuate upward in the short term [6]. - Gold prices are likely to continue rising in the short term due to the high probability of a Fed rate cut in September [11]. - Iron ore prices may be supported by restocking, and the market is in a high - level wide - range shock zone [14][15]. - Glass prices can be viewed with a low - buying strategy as they continue narrow - range consolidation [18]. - Palm oil prices are expected to be in a slightly downward volatile trend due to high inventory pressure and lack of demand [22]. - Pulp prices are expected to remain in a low - level shock, and high - selling and low - buying within the range can be considered [25]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Hot Focus - On September 12, 2025, coking coal futures rose for the second consecutive day, with a gain of 0.88% and closing at 1,144 yuan. Fundamentally, strict safety inspections in Shanxi may limit production release, but steel mill profits have limited recovery, iron - water production is at a medium - low level, coke demand is insufficient, and coking plant inventories are high. From the news perspective, coal mine supply disturbances may last until around National Day, while downstream procurement has slowed and speculative demand has weakened. Overall, carbon element supply is still abundant, and there is an expectation of a gradual recovery in downstream iron - water [2][3]. Technical Analysis - Stock Index Futures - Ten regions are conducting comprehensive reform pilots, and the reform of factor market allocation is deepening. Three departments have issued the "Work Plan for Stable Growth of the Power Equipment Industry (2025 - 2026)". The market is expected to continue to fluctuate upward in the short term [6]. Technical Analysis - Gold - The US non - farm payroll data in August was still below expectations, and there is a high probability of a Fed rate cut in September, which is positive for gold. The weekly adjustment is relatively sufficient, and the price is expected to continue rising in the short term [11]. Technical Analysis - Iron Ore - The supply of iron ore shipments is stable. Steel mills are showing signs of复产, and iron - water production is expected to remain high. As the National Day approaches in the middle and late period, steel mills' restocking may support raw material prices. Technically, it is still in a high - level wide - range shock zone, and attention should be paid to the breakthrough situation [14][15]. Technical Analysis - Glass - The daily melting volume of glass is basically stable, factory inventories have declined slightly, but the recovery of downstream deep - processing orders is insufficient. Technically, it continued narrow - range consolidation today, and a low - buying strategy can be maintained [18][19]. Technical Analysis - Palm Oil - The cumulative increase in the oil and fat market has been large recently. With the overall increase in inventory pressure and lack of demand support, the market's motivation to chase up has declined, and the pressure for profit - taking has increased. It should be treated with a slightly downward volatile view [22]. Technical Analysis - Pulp - The price of pulp in Shandong today remained stable, and port inventories have started to decline slightly, remaining at a medium - high level. There is an expected boost before the Mid - Autumn Festival peak season, but no improvement has been seen yet. It is expected to remain in a low - level shock, and high - selling and low - buying within the range can be considered [25].