美债还有不少挑战

Report Industry Investment Rating The document does not provide a clear industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The US Treasury bonds still face many challenges. Although the 10-year yield of US Treasury bonds once touched the 4% mark, due to the fragile fiscal balance, judicial challenges to tariffs, and the inertia of inflation in the US, the Fed should be cautious when loosening monetary policy to avoid the risk of re - inflation [4][13]. - The growth of domestic household loans continues to slow down. In August, the year - on - year growth rate of household RMB loans and household RMB medium - and long - term loans decreased, while the government bond stock maintained a relatively high growth rate. The impact of this part of social financing on medium - and long - term bond interest rates may not be significant [4][17]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs High - Frequency Data Panoramic Scan - US Treasury Bond Situation: In August, the US PPI was lower than expected, and the non - farm payroll employment data was significantly revised down. The 10 - year yield of US Treasury bonds once touched 4%. However, considering the fragile fiscal balance (the average fiscal deficit ratio of the US government in the past 4 quarters as of the second quarter of this year was about 6.3%, still higher than the pre - pandemic level), judicial challenges to tariffs, and the inertia of inflation (the commodity inflation in the US showed a rebound momentum in August, and the downward trend of service inflation stagnated), caution should be exercised when the 10 - year yield of US Treasury bonds reaches or is lower than 4% [4][13]. - Domestic Household Loan Situation: In August, the year - on - year growth rate of domestic household RMB loans was about 2.4%, and that of household RMB medium - and long - term loans was about 3.3%, both lower than the previous month. The government bond stock increased by 21.1% year - on - year [4][17]. - High - Frequency Data Changes: This week (the week of September 12, 2025), the average wholesale price of pork increased by 0.14% week - on - week and decreased by 26.31% year - on - year; the Shandong vegetable wholesale price index decreased by 0.14% week - on - week and 21.17% year - on - year; the edible agricultural product price index increased by 0.80% week - on - week and decreased by 12.29% year - on - year. The Brent and WTI crude oil futures prices decreased by 1.22% and 1.87% week - on - week respectively; the LME copper spot price increased by 0.54% week - on - week, and the LME aluminum spot price increased by 1.18% week - on - week. The domestic cement price index decreased by 0.53% week - on - week, the Nanhua iron ore index increased by 2.61% week - on - week, the operating rate of coking enterprises with a capacity of over 2 million tons increased by 3.57% week - on - week, the rebar inventory increased by 3.90% week - on - week, and the rebar price index decreased by 0.11% week - on - week. From September 1 - 10, 2025, the average daily trading area of commercial housing in 30 large and medium - sized cities was about 196,000 square meters, lower than the 229,000 square meters in September 2024 [4]. High - Frequency Data and Important Macroeconomic Indicators Trend Comparison The document mainly presents various charts showing the relationship between high - frequency data and important macroeconomic indicators such as industrial added value, PPI, CPI, etc., but does not provide a detailed text summary or conclusion [22]. Important High - Frequency Indicators in the US and Europe The document shows charts related to US weekly economic indicators, initial jobless claims, same - store sales growth, PCE, and the Fed's and ECB's implied interest rate adjustment prospects, but there is no specific text analysis [91]. Seasonal Trends of High - Frequency Data The document presents the seasonal trends of various high - frequency data through charts, including the production of crude steel, production material price index, etc., but there is no detailed text description [106]. High - Frequency Traffic Data in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen The document shows charts of the year - on - year changes in subway passenger volume in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen, but there is no corresponding text analysis [163].