高盛周末宏观电话 - 现已推出

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the Chinese stock market, suggesting a potential 10% upside over the next 12 months due to attractive valuations and strong participation from both retail and institutional investors [15]. Core Insights - The U.S. inflation outlook shows a dual trend, with core inflation expected to return to the 2% target by 2026, while tariff impacts may push actual core inflation above 3% [1][2]. - The labor market appears weak, with a downward revision of employment growth by 911,000 jobs, which may lead the Federal Reserve to consider interest rate cuts [1][3]. - The digital economy remains robust, but disposable income for middle and low-income households is under pressure, while high-income households are willing to pay more for convenience services [5]. - Investment in artificial intelligence infrastructure is surging, with projected capital expenditures for large-scale data centers in the U.S. expected to reach $350 billion by 2025 [6]. - The Chinese stock market rebound is driven by both retail and institutional investors, with valuations nearing reasonable levels compared to global markets [15][16]. Summary by Sections Inflation and Employment - Core CPI inflation rose by 35 basis points, primarily driven by short-term fluctuations in airfare, hotel prices, and rental costs, but the long-term trend is expected to decline [2]. - The labor market's downward revision indicates a potential monthly job growth of about 100,000 instead of the previously reported 147,000, suggesting a softening labor market [3]. Artificial Intelligence - Companies building AI infrastructure face capacity shortages, and many are seeking new capacity in the semiconductor and cloud computing sectors [3][4]. - AI infrastructure investment is expected to significantly impact productivity, although widespread effects on the macro economy will take time to materialize [8]. Digital Economy - The digital economy is strong, but spending from middle and low-income households is constrained, while sectors serving high-income households are thriving [5]. Chinese Stock Market - The Chinese stock market has seen a significant rebound, with a 30% increase in offshore markets and a 15% rise in A-shares, driven by diverse investor participation [15]. - Current valuations in the Chinese market are attractive compared to global peers, indicating further upside potential [15][16].