豆类油脂早报-20250915

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided about the report industry investment rating 2. Report's Core View - The short - term outlook for both soybean meal and palm oil is "weak with fluctuations", and the medium - term outlook is "fluctuating". The divergence in price trends between domestic and foreign soybean futures will continue until the Sino - US trade relationship improves. [5][6][8] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs For Soybean Meal (M) - Time - period Views: Short - term: fluctuating; Medium - term: fluctuating; Intraday: weak with fluctuations; Reference view: weak with fluctuations [5][7] - Core Logic: The USDA report's reduction of the US soybean yield per unit did not change the expectation of a bumper US soybean harvest, having limited impact on domestic soybeans. Before the improvement of Sino - US trade relations, the divergence in price trends between domestic and foreign soybean futures will continue. In the short - term, the price of soybean meal futures will continue to fluctuate. Factors also include import arrival rhythm, customs clearance inspection, oil refinery operation rhythm, and stocking demand. [5][7] For Palm Oil (P) - Time - period Views: Short - term: fluctuating; Medium - term: fluctuating; Intraday: weak with fluctuations; Reference view: weak with fluctuations [6][7][8] - Core Logic: In the short - term, the energy attribute of palm oil has taken a back seat, and the trading logic has reverted to the weak industrial chain. As the barometer of the vegetable oil market, with other varieties still fluctuating around trade themes, the industrial chain environment of palm oil has weakened, and the market sentiment decline has led to an overall weakening of palm oil futures prices. Factors also involve biodiesel attributes, Malaysian palm production and exports, Indonesian exports, tariff policies of major producing countries, domestic arrivals and inventory, and substitution demand. [8][7] For Soybean Oil (2601) - Time - period Views: Short - term: fluctuating; Medium - term: fluctuating; Intraday: weak with fluctuations; Reference view: weak with fluctuations [7] - Core Logic: Influenced by US biofuel policies, US soybean oil inventory, domestic soybean cost support, supply rhythm, and oil refinery inventory. [7]