华泰证券今日早参-20250915

Group 1: Macro Overview - The Federal Reserve is expected to cut interest rates by 25 basis points in September, with potential adjustments to the dot plot, influenced by the labor market and economic momentum [2][3] - The US CPI showed moderate performance in August, indicating manageable tariff impacts, while the jobless claims rose mainly due to disturbances in Texas [2][3] - The second-hand housing market is showing signs of recovery, particularly in first-tier cities, with industrial production indicators slightly improving [3][4] Group 2: A-Share Market Strategy - The A-share market has seen a rebound, with a focus on sector trends and a shift from small-cap to large-cap stocks, while maintaining a high trading volume [4] - Investment recommendations include sectors such as domestic computing power chains, innovative pharmaceuticals, robotics, chemicals, batteries, and leading consumer stocks [4] - The market is expected to maintain a positive mid-term outlook, with a focus on value and growth [4] Group 3: Hong Kong Market Insights - The Hang Seng Index has risen over 30% year-to-date, outperforming the S&P 500, with expectations for further revaluation of Hong Kong stocks [5][7] - Despite geopolitical uncertainties, there are unique characteristics in the Hong Kong market that support continued investment [5][7] - The sentiment indicator for Hong Kong stocks has improved but remains cautious, indicating a need for careful valuation comparisons [7] Group 4: Fixed Income and Debt Market - The bond market is experiencing changes due to new regulations and potential shifts in institutional dynamics, with expectations of slight upward pressure on interest rates [16] - The demand for long-term bonds may weaken, while the short-term bond market is advised to remain cautious and flexible [16] - The overall bond market is expected to stabilize, with a focus on mid-term strategies and selective trading [16] Group 5: Energy and Power Sector - National electricity generation is estimated to increase by 3.7% year-on-year in August, driven by various energy sources [18] - The new storage action plan aims to enhance the profitability of the domestic energy storage sector, with strong demand anticipated [21] - The nuclear power sector is expected to see reduced price volatility in 2026, with ongoing construction projects contributing to value growth [27] Group 6: Technology and AI Sector - TSMC is expected to benefit from advanced process pricing power and demand for advanced packaging, with a target price adjustment reflecting strong growth prospects [24] - Industrial Fulian is positioned to gain from the expanding AI server market, with profit forecasts adjusted upward [25] - Baidu's AI capabilities are anticipated to reshape its long-term narrative, with several undervalued business assets expected to be revalued positively [30]