宝城期货国债期货早报-20250915

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term view of TL2512 is oscillatory, the medium - term view is oscillatory, and the intraday view is weakly oscillatory, with an overall oscillatory view due to the existence of long - term interest rate cut expectations but a low possibility of short - term comprehensive interest rate cuts [1] - The intraday view of financial futures index stock sectors (TL, T, TF, TS) is weakly oscillatory, the medium - term view is oscillatory, and the reference view is oscillatory. In the short term, treasury bond futures will mainly conduct low - level oscillatory consolidation [5] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Index Stock Sector - For TL2512, the short - term, medium - term, and intraday views are based on the situation that long - term interest rate cut expectations still exist while the possibility of short - term comprehensive interest rate cuts is low [1] Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Index Stock Sector - Last Friday, treasury bond futures showed a differentiated trend. 2 - year treasury bond futures oscillated and slightly declined, while 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures oscillated and rose [5] - Treasury bond futures are mainly affected by monetary policy expectations and the risk appetite of the stock market [5] - In the long run, there are still expectations of interest rate cuts, but in the short term, the upward momentum of treasury bond futures is not strong because the necessity of comprehensive interest rate cuts is not high [5] - The inflation data in August was still weak. The policy side will continue to introduce policies to stabilize demand to promote a moderate rebound in inflation. It is expected that fiscal policies will be intensified in the fourth quarter, which will pose supply - side pressure on treasury bonds [5] - The risk appetite of the stock market is at a high level, siphoning bond - buying funds and suppressing the demand side of treasury bonds, showing the stock - bond seesaw effect [5]