烧碱：短期偏弱

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a short - term weak rating for caustic soda [1] Report's Core View - Currently, caustic soda has insufficient upward drivers, the futures market is reflecting the decline in spot prices in Shandong, and there is still pressure on spot prices in the short term. The main obstacles to the rise of caustic soda come from exports and alumina. Overall, the market is short - term weak [3] Summary by Related Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - The futures price of the 01 contract is 2560, the price of the cheapest deliverable 32% caustic soda spot in Shandong is 850, the spot 32% caustic soda in Shandong converted to the futures price is 2656, and the basis is 96 [1] Spot News - Taking Shandong as the benchmark, the liquid caustic soda in the province is generally stable today. There is resistance to high non - aluminum prices, and some negotiated orders have declined. Attention should be paid to the delivery volume of major downstream industries and the inventory changes of caustic soda plants [2] Market Condition Analysis - The lack of upward drivers for caustic soda mainly comes from exports and alumina. In terms of exports, new production capacity of Vinythai and high supply in Japan and South Korea lead to sufficient supply in Southeast Asia, the export profit cannot expand, the export orders are not improved, and the price difference between 50% and 32% caustic soda is weak. In terms of alumina, the high - output and high - inventory pattern compresses profits, and the supply of marginal production capacity may be affected by profits in the future. Although there are expected new production capacities in Guangxi at the end of this year and from Orient Hope at the beginning of next year, before the stockpiling starts, the market is difficult to achieve resonance between futures and spot [3] Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of caustic soda is - 1, indicating a weak trend [4]