国泰君安期货商品研究晨报：黑色系列-20250915

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the report Core Views - The report covers multiple commodities in the black series, including iron ore, rebar, hot-rolled coils, ferrosilicon, silicomanganese, coke, coking coal, and logs. The overall view is that iron ore, logs are expected to fluctuate repeatedly, rebar and hot-rolled coils' demand needs verification and prices will oscillate at low levels, while ferrosilicon, silicomanganese, coke, and coking coal will experience wide-range fluctuations with repeated expectations [2] Summary by Commodity Iron Ore - Price and Position Changes: The closing price of the futures contract was 799.5 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan or 0.50% from the previous day, with a position of 543,195 lots, an increase of 4,219 lots. Imported ore prices mostly declined, with the price of PB (61.5%) dropping 9 yuan to 790 yuan/ton [4] - Macro and Industry News: As of the end of August, the balance of broad money (M2) was 331.98 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8.8%; the balance of narrow money (M1) was 111.23 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6% [4] - Trend Intensity: The trend intensity of iron ore is 0, indicating a neutral view [4] Rebar and Hot-Rolled Coils - Price and Position Changes: The closing price of RB2510 was 3,035 yuan/ton, up 22 yuan or 0.73%; the closing price of HC2510 was 3,395 yuan/ton, up 16 yuan or 0.47%. The trading volume and positions of both decreased [7] - Macro and Industry News: On September 11, steel union weekly data showed that in terms of production, rebar decreased by 6.75 tons, hot-rolled coils increased by 10.9 tons, and the total of five major varieties decreased by 3.41 tons. In August, China exported 951.0 tons of steel, a decrease of 32.6 tons from the previous month, a month-on-month decrease of 3.3%; from January to August, the cumulative export of steel was 7,749.0 tons, a year-on-year increase of 10.0% [8] - Trend Intensity: The trend intensity of rebar and hot-rolled coils is 0, indicating a neutral view [9] Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - Price and Position Changes: The closing prices of silicon iron 2511 and 2601 were 5,608 yuan/ton and 5,574 yuan/ton respectively, down 18 yuan and 14 yuan; the closing prices of manganese silicon 2511 and 2601 were 5,822 yuan/ton and 5,832 yuan/ton respectively, down 4 yuan and 6 yuan [10] - Macro and Industry News: On September 12, the price of 72 ferrosilicon in Shaanxi was 5,150 - 5,250 yuan/ton, and the price of 75 ferrosilicon in Shaanxi was 5,900 yuan/ton. Hebei Iron and Steel Group finalized the purchase price of 75B ferrosilicon in September at 5,800 yuan/ton, a decrease of 230 yuan/ton from August [10] - Trend Intensity: The trend intensity of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese is 0, indicating a neutral view [12] Coke and Coking Coal - Price and Position Changes: The closing price of JM2601 was 1,144.5 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan or 0.3%; the closing price of J2601 was 1,625.5 yuan/ton, down 4.5 yuan or 0.3%. Spot prices of coking coal were mostly stable, while the price of Shanxi quasi-primary coke delivered to the factory decreased by 50 yuan to 1,445 yuan/ton [14] - Macro and Industry News: As of the end of August, the balance of broad money (M2) was 331.98 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8.8%; the balance of narrow money (M1) was 111.23 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6% [14] - Trend Intensity: The trend intensity of coke and coking coal is 0, indicating a neutral view [15] Logs - Price and Position Changes: The closing price of the 2509 contract was 763 yuan, down 0.5% from the previous day and 1.6% week-on-week. The trading volume and positions of the 2509 contract decreased, while the trading volume of the 2511 contract increased by 70.1% [17] - Macro and Industry News: As of the end of August, the balance of broad money (M2) was 331.98 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8.8%; the balance of narrow money (M1) was 111.23 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6% [19] - Trend Intensity: The trend intensity of logs is 0, indicating a neutral view [19]