工业硅、多晶硅日评：高位整理-20250915

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The industrial silicon market has a potential supply increase due to the resumption of production in some silicon plants in Xinjiang and the stable increase in production in the southwest region. The demand side is mixed, with some demand increase from polysilicon plants'复产 and pressure on the organic silicon price. The industrial silicon price is expected to remain high in the short - term but may fall later [1]. - The polysilicon market has a slight increase in expected production, with significant trading volume and inventory decline. However, due to high downstream raw material inventory and pressure on the terminal, the price is under pressure to rise further [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Price Information - Industrial silicon: The average price of non - oxygenated 553 (East China) is 9,000 yuan/ton with 0.00% change; the futures主力合约收盘价 is 8,745 yuan/ton, up 0.06%. The price of 421 (East China) is 9,500 yuan/ton with no change [1]. - Polysilicon: The price of N - type dense material is 50.05 yuan/kg with no change, and the futures主力合约收盘价 is 53,610 yuan/ton, down 0.19% [1]. Information - On September 5, 2025 (US Eastern Time), US President Trump signed an executive order. Organic silicon products were newly included in the tariff list, and key metals and minerals such as gold, tungsten, uranium, and graphite were exempted [1]. - On September 11, 2025, Shandong Province announced the results of the 2025 new energy mechanism electricity price bidding. There were 1175 selected photovoltaic projects with a scale of 1.265GW, including 1.219GW of centralized photovoltaic and 46MW of distributed photovoltaic [1]. Investment Strategy - Industrial Silicon - The supply side of industrial silicon is increasing steadily, and the demand side is mixed. The price is expected to remain high in the short - term but may fall later. The trading strategy is to operate in the range, buy out - of - the - money put options, and consider the 2511 and 2512 reverse arbitrage [1]. Investment Strategy - Polysilicon - The polysilicon supply is expected to increase slightly, and the demand has some positive factors but also faces pressure from the terminal. The price is under pressure to rise further. The trading strategy is to go long on dips before the supply - side reform policy is implemented [1].