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农林牧渔周观点:猪价跌速加快,调控力度或将加码,重视生猪反内卷进程-20250915
Shenwan Hongyuan Securities·2025-09-15 02:13

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook on the pig farming industry, emphasizing the importance of the "anti-involution" process and the potential for value reassessment of quality pig enterprises [4][5]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the recent acceleration in pig price declines may lead to increased regulatory measures, urging investors to focus on the value reassessment of leading pig farming companies. The report suggests that the industry is nearing the end of its current production cycle, with a high probability of production capacity stabilizing and declining in the second half of 2025 [4][5]. - The report also notes that the overall performance of the agricultural sector is improving, with the Shenwan Agricultural, Forestry, Animal Husbandry, and Fishery Index rising by 4.8% compared to a 1.4% increase in the CSI 300 Index [4][5]. Summary by Sections Pig Farming - The report indicates that the average selling price of external three-yuan pigs was 13.27 yuan/kg as of September 14, 2025, reflecting a week-on-week decline of 2.5%. The average selling price of weaned piglets was 294 yuan/head, down 29 yuan/head, marking a new low for the year [4][5]. - The report emphasizes the expectation of upgraded production capacity regulation, suggesting that the industry is entering a phase of stable and high-quality development, which could enhance profitability and stability for quality pig enterprises [4][5]. Poultry Farming - For broiler chickens, the report notes a return to weak pricing across the industry, with the average selling price of white feather broiler chicks at 3.26 yuan/chick, down 1.21% week-on-week. The average selling price of white feather broiler meat was 3.45 yuan/kg, also down 1.15% [4][5]. - The report highlights the seasonal rebound in the yellow feather chicken market, with prices rebounding nearly 45% from the lowest point in late June [4][5]. Pet Food - The report provides insights into the pet food market, indicating that online sales in August 2025 reached 2.34 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8% and a month-on-month increase of 19%. Cumulatively, sales from January to August 2025 totaled 19.21 billion yuan, up 11% year-on-year [4][5]. - Specific companies such as Guai Bao Pet and Zhong Chong have shown significant growth in their online sales, with Guai Bao Pet's GMV increasing by 15% year-on-year in August [4][5].