铝周报：美联储降息在即，沪铝或震荡偏强运行-20250915

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - Aluminum prices are expected to show a mainly oscillating and slightly upward trend, with limited price fluctuations and few arbitrage opportunities. It is recommended to mainly wait and see for option contracts [3][27] Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - Last week, the price of the main contract AL2509 of Shanghai aluminum futures showed an upward trend, ranging from around 20,695 yuan/ton to a maximum of about 21,125 yuan/ton [7] 2. Macroeconomic Aspect - In August 2025, the national consumer price index decreased by 0.4% year-on-year. From January to August, the average national consumer price decreased by 0.1% compared with the same period of the previous year. In August, the national consumer price was flat month-on-month [10][11] 3. Supply and Demand Situation - As of July 2025, domestic bauxite imports increased compared with the previous month. As of September 11, 2025, the total domestic alumina inventory was 32,000 tons, an increase from the previous period, and the total inventory remained at a relatively low level compared with the past five years [14] 4. Inventory Situation - As of September 12, 2025, the Shanghai Futures Exchange's electrolytic aluminum inventory increased compared with the previous week, and the LME aluminum inventory remained unchanged from the previous trading day. As of September 11, 2025, the total social inventory of electrolytic aluminum decreased compared with the previous day [20] 5. Macroeconomic and Fundamental Analysis - On September 11, the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in September was 89.1%, and the probability of a 50 - basis - point cut was 10.9%. In August 2025, the national consumer price decreased year - on - year. Bauxite imports, alumina production capacity, and alumina inventory have all increased. Electrolytic aluminum production remains high, and its production capacity is continuously growing. Shanghai aluminum inventory has increased slightly, and the inventory level is at a low level in recent years [2][26] 6. Future Outlook - Aluminum prices are expected to show a mainly oscillating and slightly upward trend, with limited price fluctuations and few arbitrage opportunities. It is recommended to mainly wait and see for option contracts [3][27]